Tondela vs Torreense Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: Tondela 1-0 Torreense.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Tondela, 28% draw, 29% Torreense — fair odds of 2.33, 3.57 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Liga Portugal 2 predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Tondela at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal, and a card each of the 3 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Tondela vs Torreense
Line-ups
- 28CarlosG
- 15CarraçaD
- 4Christian MarquesD
- 6FarruD
- 12Zé RicardoD
- 97CíceroM
- 37SararáM
- 26A. van der HeideF
- 20Hugo FélixM
- 7CascavelM
- 19TómanéF
- 95R. da SilvaG
- 1Lucas CañizaresG
- 2BebetoM
- 3ian kamgaD
- 5João AfonsoD
- 11Alves Richarllyson CarvalhoF
- 13S. SitholeM
- 14Xabi HuarteM
- 8Hélder TavaresM
- 31AdrielG
- 22David BrunoD
- 4Volnei FeltesD
- 5M. DiadieM
- 23Javi VázquezD
- 6A. OudrhiriM
- 8Alejandro AlfaroM
- 29L. QuinteroF
- 33João MarquesF
- 7D. JeanM
- 27M. AbubakariF
- 2StopiraD
- 11Manu PozoF
- 19K. ZoabiF
- 17M. DrammehF
- 26André SimõesM
- 21Nuha JattaM
- 28Hugo PérezD
- 45J. MutomboD
- 3Juan María AlcedoD
Form going into Tondela vs Torreense
Tondela
- W2-0away to Portimonense12 September 2026
- W3-0FC Porto B5 September 2026
- L0-2away to União de Leiria28 August 2026
- L0-2Academica21 August 2026
Torreense
- D0-0Leixoes11 September 2026
- W2-0away to Benfica B5 September 2026
- L0-3Vizela29 August 2026
- D2-2away to Lusitânia Lourosa22 August 2026
What these results say
- 3 of these 4 matches for Tondela had two goals or fewer.
- Torreense failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 12 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Tondela vs Torreense
- 1 March 2025Tondela 2–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 4 October 2024Torreense 0–2 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 15 March 2024Torreense 0–1 TondelaSegunda Liga
- 26 November 2023Torreense 1–1 TondelaTaça de Portugal
- 5 November 2023Tondela 1–2 TorreenseSegunda Liga
- 4 March 2023Tondela 1–1 TorreenseSegunda Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.