União de Leiria vs Academica Segunda Liga prediction & result
Final score: União de Leiria 0-2 Academica.
Before kick-off the model made it 58% União de Leiria, 21% draw, 21% Academica — fair odds of 1.72, 4.76 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts União de Leiria at 58% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — União de Leiria vs Academica
Line-ups
- 99J. OdehnalG
- 68MagaD
- 44MarceloD
- 16Zé PedroD
- 70H. MasakiF
- 21JaimeF
- 6E. KouassiM
- 98IbrahimaM
- 17Pablo FernándezM
- 7Jose AdjuguF
- 9Juan MuñozF
- 82S. LukisaF
- 80Christian JoelG
- 8RekoM
- 25Diogo AmadoM
- 88Diogo MartinsM
- 29D. LoppyF
- 34QuilmaD
- 3Marc BaróD
- 18Tharlley Oliveira Da SilvaM
- 12Victor BragaG
- 2XaviD
- 3Ricardo TeixeiraD
- 4Guilherme Willian da SilvaD
- 15KakaD
- 25L. PierreM
- 5Leandro SilvaD
- 20J. SinisterraM
- 8K. ZohiF
- 92A. CoundoulM
- 19Afonso RodriguesF
- 9Martim TavaresF
- 10I. FaureF
- 54NiD
- 46H. NunesM
- 26T. SoaresM
- 23Rui GomesF
- 13KauanD
- 1Nuno MacedoG
- 17Marcos PauloM
Form going into União de Leiria vs Academica
União de Leiria
- D2-2away to Amarante13 September 2026
- W1-0Portimonense6 September 2026
- W2-0Tondela28 August 2026
- W4-2away to Leixoes22 August 2026
Academica
- L0-3Benfica B11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Penafiel5 September 2026
- L0-2Lusitânia Lourosa29 August 2026
- W2-0away to Tondela21 August 2026
What these results say
- União de Leiria went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- União de Leiria scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- União de Leiria won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Academica failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Academica conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | União de Leiria | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 10 |
| 6 | Academica | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: União de Leiria vs Academica
- 11 October 2026União de Leiria 0–2 AcademicaSegunda Liga
- 12 July 2024Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaFriendlies Clubs
- 15 January 2023Academica 1–3 União de LeiriaLiga 3
- 3 September 2022União de Leiria 1–1 AcademicaLiga 3
- 20 January 2012Academica 0–0 União de LeiriaPrimeira Liga
- 15 August 2011União de Leiria 1–2 AcademicaPrimeira Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.