Velež vs Siroki Brijeg Premijer Liga prediction & result
Final score: Velež 0-0 Siroki Brijeg.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% Velež, 27% draw, 30% Siroki Brijeg — fair odds of 2.33, 3.70 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Velež at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
Velež
- L0-2away to Zrinjski19 September 2026
- W1-0FK Sarajevo13 September 2026
- L1-3away to Zeljeznicar Sarajevo6 September 2026
- D1-1Radnik Bijeljina2 September 2026
Siroki Brijeg
- L2-3Borac Banja Luka20 September 2026
- D1-1BSK Banja Luka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to Zrinjski6 September 2026
- L1-2FK Sarajevo2 September 2026
What these results say
- Velež failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Velež scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Velež conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Siroki Brijeg conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premijer Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Velež | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 8 |
| 5 | Siroki Brijeg | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Velež vs Siroki Brijeg
- 21 April 2026Velež 3–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 15 February 2026Siroki Brijeg 1–0 VeležPremijer Liga
- 11 February 2026Velež 2–1 Siroki BrijegCup
- 25 October 2025Velež 1–0 Siroki BrijegPremijer Liga
- 10 August 2025Siroki Brijeg 1–3 VeležPremijer Liga
- 28 March 2025Siroki Brijeg 2–5 VeležPremijer Liga
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.