Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Sporting Gijon 3-2 Celta de Vigo II.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Sporting Gijon, 29% draw, 27% Celta de Vigo II — fair odds of 2.27, 3.45 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Gijon at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Line-ups
- 1Rubén YáñezG
- 24Aimar DuñabeitiaD
- 23Jorge SáenzD
- 44Andrés CuencaD
- 2Guille RosasM
- 8M. RodriguezM
- 14Álex CorrederaM
- 3Pablo GarcíaM
- 27Enol PrendesF
- 17Antonio CasasF
- 7Gaspar CamposF
- 13AranaG
- 35C. FerreresM
- 4E. GularteD
- 26Iker MartínezD
- 5Diego SánchezD
- 16A. SarcoF
- 15Pablo VázquezD
- 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezM
- 28M. CondeF
- 1Coke CarrilloG
- 2P. GavianD
- 3K. RibesD
- 20A. RodriguezD
- 23G. MillerM
- 16Adrià CapdevilaM
- 6P. MeixusM
- 18Joel LópezM
- 15A. KibetF
- 9A. MarinF
- 10O. MarcosF
- 13Caio BaroneG
- 19A. Davila OutereloF
- 11Ángel ArcosF
- 14Jan OliverasD
- 21Alexis OlmedoD
- 28Vladimir Henrique SilvaF
- 25M. GonzalezG
- 26Jorge Pérez-Lafuente ReyF
- 27Noah Rodríguez GuallarM
Form going into Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
- L0-2away to Oviedo27 September 2026
- W3-1away to FC Andorra19 September 2026
- L0-1Eldense13 September 2026
Celta de Vigo II
- D1-1Sabadell26 September 2026
- L0-2away to Almeria20 September 2026
- L0-4Eibar14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sporting Gijon | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 16 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sporting Gijon vs Celta de Vigo II
- 4 October 2026Sporting Gijon 3–2 Celta de Vigo IISegunda División
Leading scorers: Sporting Gijon and Celta de Vigo II
Sporting Gijon
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Celta de Vigo II
GoalsAssists
- A. Marin51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.