Las Palmas vs Valladolid Segunda División prediction & result
Final score: Las Palmas 2-2 Valladolid.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Las Palmas, 29% draw, 24% Valladolid — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Segunda División predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Las Palmas at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Line-ups
- 13José CaroG
- 25Valentín PezzolesiD
- 4Álex SuárezD
- 21G. BonfantiD
- 23A. RodriguezD
- 11T. MiyashiroM
- 12E. LoiodiceM
- 20Kirian RodríguezM
- 24Iván JaimeM
- 10JeséF
- 29Elías RomeroF
- 44Adrián VázquezD
- 14Manu FusterM
- 7Jefté BetancorF
- 26A. BassingaM
- 16Mateo AcimovicM
- 30I. MedinaF
- 43Eduard Mohedano SerranoG
- 3N. OpokuD
- 42Rachid Saiah BouchaibaD
- 1Álvaro AcevesG
- 14Iván AlejoD
- 15Pablo TomeoD
- 4David TorresD
- 27Iván GarrielD
- 24S. JurićM
- 6M. LachuerM
- 30Víctor FernándezM
- 21J. PonceauM
- 19Adrian ArnuncioF
- 9Juanmi LatasaF
- 11Yeray CabanzónF
- 34Brain ChineduF
- 18ClercD
- 22K. de RooijF
- 2TrilliD
- 8T. OjedaM
- 5Ramón MartínezD
- 13Dani MartínG
- 26L. LavagninoG
Form going into Las Palmas vs Valladolid
Las Palmas
- L2-3away to Eibar27 September 2026
- L1-2Burgos20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cadiz12 September 2026
Valladolid
- W3-1Cordoba27 September 2026
- D1-1away to AD Ceuta FC20 September 2026
- L0-3Oviedo13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Las Palmas | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
| 11 | Valladolid | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Las Palmas vs Valladolid
- 4 October 2026Las Palmas 2–2 ValladolidSegunda División
- 3 May 2026Las Palmas 2–1 ValladolidSegunda División
- 14 November 2025Valladolid 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
- 28 February 2025Valladolid 1–1 Las PalmasLa Liga
- 7 December 2024Las Palmas 2–1 ValladolidLa Liga
- 19 March 2022Valladolid 0–1 Las PalmasSegunda División
Leading scorers: Las Palmas and Valladolid
Las Palmas
No player in Segunda División's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Valladolid
GoalsAssists
- Adrian Arnuncio31
- Juanmi Latasa30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.