Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Atletico Nacional 0-0 Deportes Tolima.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Atletico Nacional, 27% draw, 19% Deportes Tolima — fair odds of 1.85, 3.70 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atletico Nacional at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Line-ups
- 34F. ArmaniG
- 6A. RománD
- 3N. ParraD
- 4C. HaydarD
- 20M. CascoD
- 21J. CampuzanoM
- 22E. CabreraM
- 27Y. PerlazaM
- 23J. RodríguezM
- 10E. CardonaM
- 99I. PovedaF
- 30K. ParraM
- 19J. RengifoF
- 31X. RiosM
- 33S. VelásquezM
- 80J. ZapataM
- 8M. UribeM
- 26F. MarinD
- 25L. MarquinezG
- 32Emmanuel BenítezF
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 33J. MosqueraD
- 80B. RoviraD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 14H. MartínezM
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 10L. SánchezM
- 20J. HernándezM
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 28E. LópezF
- 5J. MeraD
- 34Gustavo Moreno
- 11J. ValenciaF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 24A. ParraF
- 16V. ReyesM
- 9L. SandovalF
- 29Néifer SánchezF
Form going into Atletico Nacional vs Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
- W3-1Junior1 October 2026
- D1-1Millonarios25 September 2026
- L0-2away to Llaneros21 September 2026
- W3-2away to Internacional de Bogota17 September 2026
Deportes Tolima
- D0-0Chico3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Nacional conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Atletico Nacional scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in 3 of these 4 matches for Atletico Nacional.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Nacional | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 23 |
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: Atletico Nacional and Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
GoalsAssists
- A. Morelos146
- A. Sarmiento86
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.