9 October 2026, 23:00 UTC

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas Primera A prediction & result

Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar
Referee: W. Montano
Full time2 – 2

Final score: Alianza Valledupar 2-2 Águilas Doradas.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Alianza Valledupar, 29% draw, 34% Águilas Doradas — fair odds of 2.70, 3.45 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Alianza Valledupar at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Alianza Valledupar0%Draw1%Águilas Doradas99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Cristian Vergara
4'
21'
⚽Iván Rojasassist: Andres Ricaurte
33'
🔁Fabián Suárezout: Anthony Vásquez
36'
John Ontaneda
45+3'
⚽Anthony Vásquezassist: Ricardo Marquez
🔁Deinner Quiñonesout: Misael Martinez
45'
🔁Charly Villegas Gonzálezout: Yeiner Londoño
57'
58'
🔁Eduar Arízalasout: Matías Ramírez
Jair Castillo
62'
63'
Andres Ricaurte
Ever Meza
72'
Yeiner Londoño
75'
77'
🔁Iván Rojasout: Sebastián Rodríguez
78'
🔁Ricardo Marquezout: Juan Esteban·Avalo Trejos
78'
🔁Andres Ricaurteout: Juan Camilo Roa
79'
Frank Lozano
Misael Martinez
80'
🔁Jair Castilloout: Josy Pérez
81'
🔁Jesús Muñozout: Ever Meza
81'
Juan Viveros
82'
🔁Juan Viverosout: Pedro Franco
84'
⚽Misael Martinezassist: Josy Pérez
90'
José Flabio Torres Díaz
90+2'
Josy Pérez
90+4'
Misael Martinez
90+4'
•Yeiner Londoño
90+6'
⚽Jesus Figueroa (pen)
90+9'

Match stats — Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

59%Possession41%
20Shots12
6On target5
6Corners5
1.7xG1.38

Goals against chances

Alianza Valledupar2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
Águilas Doradas2 from 1.38 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1
  • 40E. EstebanG
  • 23I. AlbaD
  • 22J. FigueroaD
  • 32J. ViverosD
  • 33jhildrey lassoD
  • 55W. FernándezM
  • 7J. CastilloM
  • 14C. VillegasM
  • 10D. QuiñónesM
  • 8J. MuñozM
  • 18Cristian VergaraF
Substitutes
  • 77M. MartínezF
  • 27Yeiner Stiwar Londoño RenteríaM
  • 5P. FrancoD
  • 6E. MezaM
  • 3K. MorenoD
  • 21Samuel NietoF
  • 25J. PerezM
  • 13A. SimancasG
  • 11Brayan Stiven Viafara AponzaF
Coach: Flabio Torres
Águilas Doradas 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. SotoG
  • 26D. LozanoD
  • 4A. MosqueraD
  • 3J. OntanedaD
  • 32J. MenaD
  • 19F. LozanoM
  • 6I. RojasM
  • 15F. SuárezM
  • 8A. RicaurteM
  • 7Eduar ArízalasM
  • 21R. MárquezF
Substitutes
  • 30N. LaraD
  • 12Juan HurtadoG
  • 29T. BlandonF
  • 10Junior Alexander Noguera MachucaM
  • 16M. RamírezF
  • 24J. ÁvaloM
  • 25J. RoaM
  • 28S. RodríguezD
  • 9A. VásquezF
Coach: F. Robatto

Form going into Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar

  • L1-3away to Deportivo Cali3 October 2026
  • W2-1away to Jaguares27 September 2026
  • L1-4Santa Fe19 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Chico16 September 2026

Águilas Doradas

  • W2-0Jaguares3 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Deportivo Cali28 September 2026
  • L0-1away to America de Cali24 September 2026

What these results say

  • Alianza Valledupar scored in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Alianza Valledupar conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
  • Every one of these 4 matches for Alianza Valledupar had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Primera A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
15Alianza Valledupar133371426-1212
11Águilas Doradas133731718-116

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

  • 27 March 2026Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 18 October 2025Águilas Doradas 1–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
  • 4 June 2025Alianza Valledupar 4–0 Águilas DoradasCopa Colombia
  • 26 April 2025Alianza Valledupar 0–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 6 November 2024Alianza Valledupar 3–0 Águilas DoradasPrimera A
  • 17 April 2024Águilas Doradas 4–0 Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

Leading scorers: Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar

No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Águilas Doradas

GoalsAssists

  • Jorge Luis Rivaldo Pinto110

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.