Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Fortaleza FC 1-1 Millonarios.
Before kick-off the model made it 30% Fortaleza FC, 30% draw, 40% Millonarios — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Millonarios at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
Line-ups
- 1W. BarlasinaG
- 16J. CajaresD
- 6Y. DíazD
- 5J. Medina ObandoD
- 15S. CueroD
- 14L. PicoM
- 25J. GarciaM
- 8S. NavarroM
- 28S. VivasM
- 24J. SalasM
- 9J. HerreraF
- 4E. CabezasD
- 2Andres MosqueraM
- 7Í. MontañoF
- 19F. PulicastroF
- 12C. SantanderG
- 27J. SinisterraF
- 30J. SolísM
- 10J. VelásquezM
- 32Mariano VázquezM
- 1J. BurraiG
- 3M. Diaz SamuelD
- 4S. BarreiroD
- 6S. MosqueraD
- 22Sebastián Valencia IsazaD
- 11A. EstupiñánM
- 18R. UreñaM
- 55LeonaiM
- 13F. ChaverraM
- 7J. CuadradoF
- 23L. CastroF
- 28S. VegaM
- 14D. SilvaM
- 10D. RuizF
- 25D. QuinteroM
- 35Sebastián MosqueraF
- 26A. LlinásD
- 20D. BangueroD
- 12J. AguirreG
- 30S. del CastilloM
Form going into Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
Fortaleza FC
- D0-0away to Deportivo Pasto4 October 2026
- D2-2Deportes Tolima27 September 2026
- L1-4Junior20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Jaguares11 September 2026
Millonarios
- D2-2away to Independiente Medellin30 September 2026
- D1-1away to Atletico Nacional25 September 2026
- W3-0Chico19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Cucuta14 September 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza FC did not win any of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza FC scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Fortaleza FC conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Millonarios went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Millonarios scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Millonarios conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Fortaleza FC | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 11 |
| 7 | Millonarios | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
- 31 March 2026Millonarios 2–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 21 September 2025Millonarios 3–2 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 6 April 2025Fortaleza FC 0–2 MillonariosPrimera A
- 17 October 2024Millonarios 2–1 Fortaleza FCPrimera A
- 31 March 2024Fortaleza FC 1–2 MillonariosPrimera A
- 18 August 2022Fortaleza FC 2–3 MillonariosCopa Colombia
Leading scorers: Fortaleza FC and Millonarios
Fortaleza FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Arroyo94
Millonarios
GoalsAssists
- A. Estupiñán174
- L. Castro114
- R. Contreras101
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.