Switzerland vs North Macedonia UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: Switzerland 3-0 North Macedonia.
Before kick-off the model made it 63% Switzerland, 24% draw, 13% North Macedonia — fair odds of 1.59, 4.17 and 7.69. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Switzerland at 63% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Switzerland vs North Macedonia
Line-ups
- 12Y. MvogoG
- 2S. BritschgiD
- 4N. ElvediD
- 5M. AkanjiD
- 13R. RodríguezD
- 8R. FreulerM
- 6V. SierroM
- 15D. SowM
- 22F. RiederM
- 11D. NdoyeM
- 10Z. AmdouniF
- 20M. AebischerM
- 23A. SanchesM
- 16Z. AthekameD
- 3A. BajramiD
- 19Winsley Boteli MokangoF
- 18E. CömertD
- 17C. IttenF
- 14A. JashariM
- 21M. KellerG
- 23S. DimitrievskiG
- 4A. StojchevskiD
- 5G. ZajkovD
- 6V. MusliuD
- 8E. AlioskiD
- 15A. EleziM
- 19L. DorievM
- 20D. MitrovskiM
- 10E. BardhiM
- 7E. ElmasM
- 11E. RastoderF
- 3S. AlomeroviсD
- 1D. TaleskiG
- 21L. StankovskiM
- 12D. ShishkovskiG
- 17A. OmeragikjF
- 9B. MiovskiF
- 18T. KostadinovM
- 2Bojan IlievskiD
- 14G. DzhekovD
Form going into Switzerland vs North Macedonia
Switzerland
- W2-1Slovenia3 October 2026
- W3-0away to Scotland29 September 2026
- W3-0away to North Macedonia26 September 2026
North Macedonia
- L0-2Scotland3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slovenia29 September 2026
- L0-3Switzerland26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Switzerland | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | +10 | 12 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Switzerland vs North Macedonia
- 26 September 2026North Macedonia 0–3 SwitzerlandUEFA Nations League
Leading scorers: Switzerland and North Macedonia
Switzerland
GoalsAssists
- Z. Amdouni31
- D. Ndoye23
North Macedonia
No league goals yet this season.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The result against the call
Switzerland beat North Macedonia 3–0. The model had made a win for Switzerland its most likely outcome, at 63%, so the call held; the score it named was 2-0. The goals: Fabian Rieder 43' for Switzerland, Johan Manzambi 73' for Switzerland, Dan Ndoye 81' for Switzerland.