6 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Luxembourg vs Bulgaria UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stade de Luxembourg, Luxembourg
Referee: Andris Treimanis
Full time0 – 2

Final score: Luxembourg 0-2 Bulgaria.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% Luxembourg, 32% draw, 29% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.56, 3.13 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Luxembourg at 39% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Luxembourg0%Draw1%Bulgaria99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

19'
⚽Kristiyan Balovassist: Emil Tsenov
31'
Georgi Rusev
34'
⚽Atanas Ilievassist: Georgi Rusev
41'
Stefan Velkov
🔁Anthony Morisout: Tiago Pereira Cardoso
45'
🔁jayson videiraout: Aiman Dardari
45'
🔁Enzo dos Santosout: Mathias Olesen
45'
50'
🔁Georgi Rusevout: P. Panayotov
51'
Yoan Stoyanov
66'
🔁Kristiyan Balovout: Stanislav Ivanov
66'
🔁Atanas Ilievout: Vladimir Nikolov
🔁J. de Sousa Moreira Cruzout: Timothé Rupil
67'
🔁Eric Veigaout: Sebastien Thill
78'
Dirk Carlson
81'
83'
🔁Martin Minchevout: Kristian Dimitrov

Match stats — Luxembourg vs Bulgaria

63%Possession37%
18Shots13
7On target5
5Corners4

Line-ups

Luxembourg 4-2-3-1
  • 1A. MorisG
  • 4F. BohnertD
  • 5V. SelimovićD
  • 13D. CarlsonD
  • 14E. VeigaD
  • 6J. de Sousa Moreira CruzM
  • 8E. de Pina Duarte dos SantosM
  • 15Omar NatamiM
  • 11V. ThillM
  • 17H. KadamaniM
  • 9Jayson Videira PereiraF
Substitutes
  • 2E. DžogovićD
  • 7Aiman DardariF
  • 23L. FoxG
  • 18S. IkeneD
  • 16T. KipsG
  • 22M. MartinsD
  • 19M. OlesenM
  • 12T. Pereira CardosoG
  • 10T. RupilM
Coach: J. Strasser
Bulgaria 4-2-3-1
  • 1D. NaumovG
  • 2Y. StoyanovD
  • 13S. VelkovD
  • 6E. TsenovD
  • 15H. PetrovD
  • 8A. KraevM
  • 4I. GruevM
  • 17M. MinchevM
  • 11G. RusevM
  • 18K. BalovM
  • 9A. IlievF
Substitutes
  • 14A. ChandarovM
  • 19I. TuritsovD
  • 7B. TsonevM
  • 22K. StoyanovM
  • 20V. NikolovF
  • 12D. MitovG
  • 21S. IvanovF
  • 3A. HristovD
  • 10Z. DimitrovF
Coach: A. Ribarski

Form going into Luxembourg vs Bulgaria

Luxembourg

  • L0-1away to Estonia3 October 2026
  • L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026

Bulgaria

  • L0-3away to Iceland3 October 2026
  • D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
  • L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Luxembourg410327-53
3Bulgaria411235-24

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria

  • 6 October 2026Luxembourg 0–2 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
  • 26 September 2026Bulgaria 1–2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
  • 15 November 2024Luxembourg 0–1 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
  • 12 October 2024Bulgaria 0–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
  • 20 November 2022Luxembourg 0–0 BulgariaFriendlies
  • 10 October 2017Luxembourg 1–1 BulgariaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

The full Luxembourg vs Bulgaria record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.