Inter Miami vs DC United Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Inter Miami 4-0 DC United.
Before kick-off the model made it 66% Inter Miami, 18% draw, 16% DC United — fair odds of 1.52, 5.56 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Miami at 66% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Inter Miami vs DC United
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 97D. St. ClairG
- 2G. LujánD
- 5CasemiroD
- 16MicaelD
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 80M. GalarzaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 9L. SuárezF
- 19G. BerterameF
- 88A. ShawM
- 17I. FrayD
- 37M. FalcónD
- 76Ezequiel Abadia-RedaD
- 11Riquelme FillipiF
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 59P. PlambeckM
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 2K. NonoD
- 3L. BartlettD
- 15K. RowlesD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 77Hosei KijimaM
- 27Nikola MarkovicM
- 21A. DozzellM
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 25J. HopkinsF
- 12C. AntleyD
- 32O. AvilezF
- 26A. BonoG
- 5S. HeftiD
- 13S. NealisD
- 22N. OrdazF
- 4M. PeltolaD
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 8J. StroudM
Form going into Inter Miami vs DC United
Inter Miami
- L1-2away to Columbus Crew27 September 2026
- D2-2San Diego20 September 2026
- D2-2Nashville SC12 September 2026
DC United
- D3-3away to Vancouver Whitecaps27 September 2026
- L1-2Charlotte19 September 2026
- D0-0Atlanta United FC12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Inter Miami | 29 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 70 | 50 | +20 | 52 |
| 12 | DC United | 28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Inter Miami vs DC United
- 10 October 2026Inter Miami 4–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 7 March 2026DC United 1–2 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 20 September 2025Inter Miami 3–2 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 23 August 2025DC United 1–1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- 18 May 2024Inter Miami 1–0 DC UnitedMajor League Soccer
- 16 March 2024DC United 1–3 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Inter Miami and DC United
Inter Miami
GoalsAssists
- L. Messi2311
- L. Suárez143
DC United
GoalsAssists
- T. Baribo140
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.