Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Orlando City SC 3-2 Columbus Crew.
Before kick-off the model made it 44% Orlando City SC, 24% draw, 32% Columbus Crew — fair odds of 2.27, 4.17 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Orlando City SC at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 6R. JanssonD
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 87Marco PasalicM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 23Harvey SarajianM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 11TiagoF
- 9D. DikeF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 57IagoD
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 28P. SchulteG
- 23M. FarsiD
- 31S. MoreiraD
- 25S. ZawadzkiD
- 18M. AmundsenD
- 21A. ZarouryM
- 7D. ChambostM
- 16T. HabrouneM
- 8S. RodríguezM
- 10Brais MéndezF
- 77Josef MartínezF
- 4R. CamachoD
- 3E. BaillyD
- 26L. GiacconeM
- 2M. HerreraD
- 11B. LennonD
- 20André GomesM
- 33G. TapiaF
- 1N. HagenG
- 17S. BangouraM
Form going into Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
Orlando City SC
- L2-4away to Philadelphia Union26 September 2026
- L2-4away to New England Revolution19 September 2026
- W3-0Toronto FC12 September 2026
Columbus Crew
- W2-1Inter Miami27 September 2026
- W2-0away to CF Montreal19 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Orlando City SC | 29 | 11 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 69 | -15 | 38 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 9 | 5 | 15 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Orlando City SC vs Columbus Crew
- 10 October 2026Orlando City SC 3–2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 16 September 2026Columbus Crew 2–1 Orlando City SCUS Open Cup
- 12 April 2026Columbus Crew 1–1 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 4 October 2025Orlando City SC 1–1 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- 25 July 2025Columbus Crew 1–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- 21 September 2024Columbus Crew 4–3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew
Orlando City SC
GoalsAssists
- M. Ojeda132
Columbus Crew
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.