New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New England Revolution 0-3 Seattle Sounders.
Before kick-off the model made it 48% New England Revolution, 26% draw, 26% Seattle Sounders — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts New England Revolution at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 30M. TurnerG
- 8M. PolsterD
- 22E. KohlerD
- 66J. WynderD
- 23W. SandsD
- 10Carles GilM
- 21B. RainesM
- 14J. YueillM
- 41L. LangoniF
- 99D. TurgemanF
- 25P. MillerF
- 15C. BakerD
- 4T. BeasonD
- 77D. FagundezM
- 12I. FeingoldD
- 16D. GazdagM
- 27W. HarrisF
- 33D. ParisianG
- 65J. SiqueiraM
- 7G. YowF
- 26A. ThomasG
- 16A. RoldanD
- 28Y. GómezD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 31H. DotsonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 90S. GomezM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 45P. KingstonM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 24S. FreiG
- 27J. FerreiraF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 37S. BrunellM
- 17P. ArriolaF
Form going into New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
New England Revolution
- L0-3away to Real Salt Lake27 September 2026
- W4-2Orlando City SC19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Chicago Fire13 September 2026
Seattle Sounders
- W2-1Sporting Kansas City2 October 2026
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | New England Revolution | 29 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 48 | 41 | +7 | 49 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New England Revolution vs Seattle Sounders
- 10 October 2026New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 7 July 2024Seattle Sounders 2–0 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 10 August 2019Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- 7 July 2018New England Revolution 0–0 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 30 April 2017Seattle Sounders 3–3 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: New England Revolution and Seattle Sounders
New England Revolution
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 48 league goals as a side.
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.