Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Atlanta United FC 1-3 FC Cincinnati.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Atlanta United FC, 24% draw, 34% FC Cincinnati — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Atlanta United FC at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1L. HoyosG
- 55T. JacobD
- 4E. MihajD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 3E. BáezD
- 11G. GaloppoM
- 14M. AmaroM
- 8T. MuyumbaM
- 10M. AlmirónF
- 36B. EmboloF
- 35A. FortuneF
- 20L. BrennanM
- 48C. SanchezM
- 27P. DíazD
- 59A. MiranchukM
- 22F. PicaultF
- 16Adrian GillM
- 42Jayden HibbertG
- 19Sergio SantosF
- 47Matthew EdwardsD
- 13E. LouroG
- 24K. SmithD
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 15T. HadebeD
- 23D. DouděraM
- 11S. GidiM
- 20P. BuchaM
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 3T. MalaciaM
- 16T. BarlowF
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
- 2A. PowellD
- 17K. Mboma DemF
- 6J. MalatiniD
- 4N. HagglundD
- 27B. AnungaM
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 66E. EcheniqueF
Form going into Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
- D2-2New York City FC26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Portland Timbers20 September 2026
- D0-0away to DC United12 September 2026
FC Cincinnati
- L1-3away to CF Montreal26 September 2026
- D2-2away to Houston Dynamo20 September 2026
- D3-3Charlotte12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Atlanta United FC | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
| 9 | FC Cincinnati | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 60 | 68 | -8 | 36 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati
- 10 October 2026Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 21 February 2026FC Cincinnati 2–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025Atlanta United FC 4–2 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- 22 March 2025FC Cincinnati 2–2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- 12 February 2025Atlanta United FC 2–2 FC CincinnatiFriendlies Clubs
- 15 May 2024FC Cincinnati 1–0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Atlanta United FC and FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 36 league goals as a side.
FC Cincinnati
GoalsAssists
- K. Denkey163
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.