Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Chicago Fire 2-1 New York City FC.
Before kick-off the model made it 45% Chicago Fire, 26% draw, 29% New York City FC — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chicago Fire at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1C. BradyG
- 24J. DeanD
- 3J. ElliottD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
- 19J. BambaM
- 9R. LewandowskiF
- 7M. Haile-SelassieF
- 32N. AllenD
- 44J. CohenG
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 18J. GómezF
- 21A. Hanche-OlsenD
- 35S. OregelM
- 22M. PinedaD
- 29D. PorębaM
- 15A. GutmanD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 24T. GrayD
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 6J. SandsD
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 8A. PereaM
- 26A. OjedaM
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 17H. WolfM
- 16A. MartínezF
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 9B. TraoréF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 88M. JonesF
Form going into Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
Chicago Fire
- W3-1Vancouver Whitecaps7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Charlotte26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nashville SC20 September 2026
New York City FC
- D2-2away to Atlanta United FC26 September 2026
- L0-1New York Red Bulls18 September 2026
- W2-0away to Real Salt Lake13 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 29 | 14 | 6 | 9 | 52 | 43 | +9 | 48 |
| 10 | New York City FC | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC
- 10 October 2026Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 July 2026New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 14 September 2025Chicago Fire 1–3 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- 25 May 2025New York City FC 3–1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 24 August 2024New York City FC 2–2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2024Chicago Fire 0–0 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Chicago Fire and New York City FC
Chicago Fire
GoalsAssists
- H. Cuypers130
New York City FC
GoalsAssists
- N. Fernández Mercau154
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.