10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Major League Soccer prediction & result

BMO Field, Toronto
Referee: Allen Chapman, USA
Full time2 – 1

Final score: Toronto FC 2-1 CF Montreal.

Before kick-off the model made it 51% Toronto FC, 25% draw, 24% CF Montreal — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Toronto FC at 51% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Toronto FC0%Draw6%CF Montreal94%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

🔁Luka Gavranout: William Yarbrough
23'
51'
⚽Daniel Rios
55'
Brayan Vera
🔁Jonathan Osorioout: Djordje Mihailovic
61'
72'
🔁Victor Loturiout: Samuel Piette
72'
🔁Alexis Sanchezout: Fabian Herbers
🔁Alonsoout: Lewis Morgan
82'
84'
Brandan Craig
86'
🔁Daniel Riosout: Wikelman·Carmona
86'
🔁Brandan Craigout: Efrain Morales
87'
Luca Petrasso
⚽Lewis Morganassist: Niklas Dorsch
90+3'
⚽Djordje Mihailovicassist: Theo Corbeanu
90+5'
Richie Laryea
90+6'

Match stats — Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

52%Possession48%
14Shots16
5On target7
8Corners6
1.7xG1.57

Goals against chances

Toronto FC2 from 1.70 xGabout what the chances were worth
CF Montreal1 from 1.57 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Toronto FC 4-3-3
  • 1L. GavranG
  • 22R. LaryeaD
  • 13B. KuscevicD
  • 15N. GomisD
  • 3Matheus PereiraD
  • 21J. OsorioM
  • 14Alonso CoelloM
  • 6N. DorschM
  • 7T. CorbeanuF
  • 9J. SargentF
  • 20D. SallóiF
Substitutes
  • 23W. YarbroughG
  • 11D. EtienneF
  • 96R. ChukwuD
  • 17Emilio Aristizábal ChavarriagaF
  • 38J. GilmanD
  • 10D. MihailovićM
  • 12Z. MonlouisD
  • 90L. MorganF
  • 27A. PiedrahitaF
Coach: R. Fraser
CF Montreal 3-4-2-1
  • 1S. BrezaG
  • 2J. NealD
  • 5B. CraigD
  • 4B. VeraD
  • 27D. BugajM
  • 22V. LoturiM
  • 8M. LongstaffM
  • 13L. PetrassoM
  • 14D. RíosM
  • 10A. SánchezM
  • 9P. OwusuF
Substitutes
  • 16W. CarmonaM
  • 21F. HerbersF
  • 41S. KeitaG
  • 24E. MoralesD
  • 7D. PereiraM
  • 6S. PietteM
  • 28V. RadojevićD
  • 23N. StreitM
  • 18H. SynchukM
Coach: Philippe Eullaffroy

Form going into Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

Toronto FC

  • L0-2away to Nashville SC27 September 2026
  • L1-3away to St. Louis City20 September 2026
  • L0-3away to Orlando City SC12 September 2026

CF Montreal

  • W3-1FC Cincinnati26 September 2026
  • L0-2Columbus Crew19 September 2026
  • L0-1away to Colorado Rapids13 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Major League Soccer table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Toronto FC29712104455-1133
15CF Montreal2966173559-2424

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Toronto FC vs CF Montreal

  • 10 October 2026Toronto FC 2–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 16 July 2026CF Montreal 0–0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 August 2025Toronto FC 1–1 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
  • 17 May 2025CF Montreal 1–6 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
  • 30 April 2025Toronto FC 2–2 CF MontrealCanadian Championship
  • 20 July 2024CF Montreal 0–1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer

Leading scorers: Toronto FC and CF Montreal

Toronto FC

No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 44 league goals as a side.

CF Montreal

GoalsAssists

  • P. Owusu156

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.