Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Philadelphia Union 2-1 Real Salt Lake.
Before kick-off the model made it 62% Philadelphia Union, 20% draw, 18% Real Salt Lake — fair odds of 1.61, 5.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Philadelphia Union at 62% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 18A. BlakeG
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 4J. LukićM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 10M. IloskiF
- 9B. DamianiF
- 23E. AlladohF
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 16B. BenderM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 2G. MartínezD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 76A. RickG
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 1Rafael CabralG
- 2D. YedlinD
- 26P. QuintonD
- 3K. HenryD
- 11D. MarczukM
- 92N. CaliskanM
- 6S. SpieringsM
- 29S. JunquaM
- 39A. HezarkhaniM
- 9M. GuilavoguiM
- 22S. SolansF
- 44L. De FougerollesD
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 98A. KatránisD
- 12S. LobzhanidzeF
- 34L. MoisaM
- 19A. PiolF
- 8J. SanabriaM
- 31M. StajduharG
- 23Chadwick Zachary BoothM
Form going into Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
- W4-2Orlando City SC26 September 2026
- W4-3away to Sporting Kansas City20 September 2026
- W5-0away to San Diego14 September 2026
Real Salt Lake
- W3-0New England Revolution27 September 2026
- L0-2away to Seattle Sounders24 September 2026
- L0-3Vancouver Whitecaps20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Philadelphia Union | 29 | 13 | 6 | 10 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 45 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | 9 | 6 | 14 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Philadelphia Union vs Real Salt Lake
- 10 October 2026Philadelphia Union 2–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 27 April 2024Philadelphia Union 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 14 July 2019Real Salt Lake 4–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 19 May 2018Philadelphia Union 4–1 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
- 28 May 2017Real Salt Lake 1–0 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- 31 July 2016Philadelphia Union 1–2 Real Salt LakeMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Philadelphia Union and Real Salt Lake
Philadelphia Union
GoalsAssists
- M. Iloski172
Real Salt Lake
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 42 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.