New York Red Bulls vs San Diego Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: New York Red Bulls 4-1 San Diego.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% New York Red Bulls, 26% draw, 38% San Diego — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts San Diego at 38% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 34E. HorvathG
- 12D. NealisD
- 2J. CheD
- 14J. BazánD
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 48R. DonkorM
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 37M. SofoM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 16J. HallF
- 7C. CowellF
- 8D. RuízM
- 88Pedro CastroM
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 60S. KoneM
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 26T. ParkerD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 20A. GodoyM
- 6J. TverskovM
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 10A. DreyerF
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 99E. AchouriF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 8O. ValakariM
- 97C. McVeyD
- 94C. BakambuF
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 36David Evra Mimbang NyangonoM
- 14B. B. ZambleF
Form going into New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
New York Red Bulls
- L0-3St. Louis City30 September 2026
- W1-0away to New York City FC18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Columbus Crew12 September 2026
San Diego
- D3-3away to Austin27 September 2026
- D2-2away to Inter Miami20 September 2026
- L0-5Philadelphia Union14 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 36 |
| 12 | San Diego | 29 | 8 | 9 | 12 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 33 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
- 10 October 2026New York Red Bulls 4–1 San DiegoMajor League Soccer
- 15 February 2025San Diego 6–0 New York Red BullsFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: New York Red Bulls and San Diego
New York Red Bulls
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 39 league goals as a side.
San Diego
GoalsAssists
- M. Ingvartsen123
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.