Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Nautico Recife 0-2 Novorizontino.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Nautico Recife, 26% draw, 43% Novorizontino — fair odds of 3.23, 3.85 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Novorizontino at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Line-ups
- 1MurielG
- 2ArnaldoD
- 15Léo ÍndioD
- 3AlbertoD
- 23Igor FernandesD
- 8WendersonM
- 41SamuelM
- 29Júnior TodinhoM
- 10Jean CarlosM
- 7ViníciusM
- 72DerekF
- 24B. BorasiM
- 11Victor AndradeF
- 34WandersonD
- 5AuremirM
- 55G. GuruceagaG
- 46Gustavo HenriqueD
- 93Reginaldo LopesD
- 22P. NúñezM
- 27Luiz FelipeM
- 93JordiG
- 2MadsonD
- 26Gabriel BahiaD
- 4PatrickD
- 5SanderD
- 41ReidineyM
- 17Matheus BianquiM
- 6Luis OyamaM
- 30Nicolas CarecaM
- 10RomuloF
- 11RobsonF
- 7Ronald BarcellosF
- 66MaykonD
- 28MarlonM
- 18Léo NaldiM
- 50JuninhoM
- 77Hélio BorgesF
- 14Eduardo BrockD
- 31CésarG
- 9CarlãoF
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
Novorizontino
- W3-0Goias2 October 2026
- D0-0São Bernardo25 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ceara18 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nautico Recife | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 42 |
| 2 | Novorizontino | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 59 | 28 | +31 | 60 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino
- 14 June 2026Novorizontino 2–2 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 15 October 2022Novorizontino 6–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 2 July 2022Nautico Recife 3–1 NovorizontinoSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Novorizontino
Nautico Recife
GoalsAssists
- Vinícius93
Novorizontino
GoalsAssists
- Robson155
- Romulo119
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.