Ceara vs Criciuma Serie B prediction & result
Final score: Ceara 1-0 Criciuma.
Before kick-off the model made it 52% Ceara, 27% draw, 21% Criciuma — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ceara at 52% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Ceara vs Criciuma
Line-ups
- 1RichardG
- 18JúlioD
- 4Luiz OtávioD
- 13Luiz OtávioD
- 12SanchezD
- 25Vinicius ZanoceloM
- 81Joao GabrielM
- 60Enzo LodovicoM
- 29VinaM
- 8Matheus AraújoM
- 94R. LópezF
- 26RichardsonM
- 23Caíque FrançaG
- 33ÉderD
- 11N. FerreiraF
- 7Giovanni PavaniM
- 77Lenny LobatoF
- 10L. MugniM
- 99LuccaF
- 22Matheus NogueiraG
- 32AirtonG
- 6MarcinhoD
- 3RodrigoD
- 4Luciano CastánD
- 22Marcelo HermesD
- 14RonaldM
- 41Jean IrmerM
- 7Fellipe MateusM
- 10Jhonata RobertF
- 33YuriF
- 91R. OteroF
- 5EduardoM
- 37César MartinsD
- 88CauêF
- 34Bruno AlvesD
- 1AlissonG
- 21João CarlosF
- 11RomarinhoF
- 50ThiaguinhoM
- 97Willean LepoD
Form going into Ceara vs Criciuma
Ceara
- W1-0away to Avai3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Operario-PR26 September 2026
- W2-1Novorizontino18 September 2026
Criciuma
- W2-0away to Londrina2 October 2026
- W3-0Avai27 September 2026
- L0-2Operario-PR22 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Ceara | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 42 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 28 | +6 | 56 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ceara vs Criciuma
- 16 June 2026Criciuma 1–1 CearaSerie B
- 2 September 2023Ceara 1–0 CriciumaSerie B
- 21 May 2023Criciuma 1–2 CearaSerie B
- 18 November 2017Criciuma 1–1 CearaSerie B
- 2 August 2017Ceara 3–1 CriciumaSerie B
- 8 November 2016Criciuma 2–3 CearaSerie B
Leading scorers: Ceara and Criciuma
Ceara
GoalsAssists
- Melk75
Criciuma
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 34 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.