Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Drogheda United.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% Shamrock Rovers, 25% draw, 19% Drogheda United — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shamrock Rovers at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
Line-ups
- 1E. McGintyG
- 6D. ClearyD
- 4PicoD
- 5L. GraceD
- 22T. SobowaleM
- 8M. HealyM
- 7D. WattsM
- 11J. MulraneyM
- 29J. ByrneM
- 10G. BurkeM
- 88J. McGovernF
- 25L. SteacyG
- 28N. RaziF
- 27C. O'SullivanD
- 26John O'SullivanM
- 31M. NoonanF
- 9A. GreeneF
- 24W. FitzgeraldF
- 19A. BrennanM
- 18J. AfolabiF
- 44Fynn Michael Cordell TalleyG
- 4A. QuinnD
- 22C. KeeleyD
- 5Leo BurneyD
- 2E. AgbajeM
- 8Ethan O'BrienM
- 10B. KavanaghM
- 17S. FarrellM
- 3C. KaneM
- 25R. MarkeyF
- 24W. DavisF
- 18J. BolgerD
- 29J. BrennanD
- 31K. CruiseD
- 14M. DoyleF
- 6J. GoddenM
- 36theo hennessyG
- 32D. MareD
- 33S. McGrathM
- 11T. OluwaF
Form going into Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
- W3-2Waterford18 September 2026
- L0-2away to St Patrick's Athletic11 September 2026
- D0-0Shelbourne4 September 2026
Drogheda United
- L1-2away to Bohemians18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
- L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
What these results say
- Drogheda United scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Drogheda United conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Drogheda United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Shamrock Rovers | 33 | 19 | 8 | 6 | 54 | 33 | +21 | 65 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Shamrock Rovers vs Drogheda United
- 8 October 2026Shamrock Rovers 3–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 31 July 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 4 May 2026Shamrock Rovers 4–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 16 March 2026Drogheda United 0–0 Shamrock RoversPremier Division
- 12 September 2025Drogheda United 1–1 Shamrock RoversFAI Cup
- 31 August 2025Shamrock Rovers 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Shamrock Rovers and Drogheda United
Shamrock Rovers
GoalsAssists
- J. McGovern106
- G. Burke83
- M. Noonan60
Drogheda United
GoalsAssists
- M. Doyle80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.