Dundalk vs Bohemians Premier Division prediction & result
Final score: Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Dundalk, 27% draw, 40% Bohemians — fair odds of 3.03, 3.70 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
All League of Ireland Premier Division predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Bohemians at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Dundalk vs Bohemians
Line-ups
- 1E. MinogueG
- 5H. WarrenD
- 4M. AnimasahunD
- 44T. GrivostiD
- 3B. BurnsD
- 18K. BuckleyM
- 6A. DervinM
- 15T. ClarkeM
- 11R. TeahanM
- 7D. HorganM
- 10Leonardo GaxhaF
- 20P. CherrieG
- 24R. CornwallD
- 9C. DillonF
- 14Norman GarbettM
- 8H. GroomeM
- 27D. McDaidM
- 12L. MulliganD
- 16E. VasseninD
- 23A. M. KeoghM
- 25P. WaltersG
- 16D. PowerD
- 12P. HickeyD
- 24C. ByrneD
- 15S. MullenD
- 10D. DevoyM
- 6J. FloresM
- 26R. TierneyM
- 8H. VaughanM
- 7C. ParsonsM
- 9C. WhelanF
- 11D. RooneyF
- 4N. MorahanM
- 17A. McDonnellM
- 41P. MaddenF
- 18D. James-TaylorF
- 5S. DialloM
- 1K. ChorążkaG
- 3R. BurkeD
- 23Zane MyersD
Form going into Dundalk vs Bohemians
Dundalk
- L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
Bohemians
- W2-1Drogheda United18 September 2026
- W3-2away to Galway United11 September 2026
- W3-0Sligo Rovers28 August 2026
What these results say
- Dundalk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dundalk failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dundalk scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 58 | 40 | +18 | 59 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Dundalk vs Bohemians
- 2 October 2026Dundalk 1–2 BohemiansPremier Division
- 19 June 2026Bohemians 1–2 DundalkPremier Division
- 8 May 2026Dundalk 1–3 BohemiansPremier Division
- 20 March 2026Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
- 27 September 2024Dundalk 0–2 BohemiansPremier Division
- 26 July 2024Bohemians 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
Leading scorers: Dundalk and Bohemians
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1110
- G. Arubi73
Bohemians
GoalsAssists
- C. Whelan136
- R. Tierney113
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.