Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City Major League Soccer prediction & result
Final score: Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City.
Before kick-off the model made it 49% Seattle Sounders, 26% draw, 25% Sporting Kansas City — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the exact scoreline.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Seattle Sounders at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City
Line-ups
- 26A. ThomasG
- 16A. RoldanD
- 39S. HawkinsD
- 25J. RagenD
- 5N. ToloD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 7C. RoldanM
- 13J. MorrisM
- 11A. RusnákM
- 17P. ArriolaM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 8C. ClarkM
- 24S. FreiG
- 28Y. GómezD
- 90S. GomezM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziM
- 4R. SailorD
- 35Antino LopezD
- 81M. BronnikF
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 18E. KarićD
- 11André LuizM
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 14C. HarrisM
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 1J. PulskampG
- 99J. ReidD
- 29S. ReidF
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 2I. JamesD
- 22Z. BassongD
- 23E. BartlowD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 42Alexander CunninghamD
Form going into Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
- W3-1Minnesota United FC27 September 2026
- W2-0Real Salt Lake24 September 2026
Sporting Kansas City
- W2-0away to Houston Dynamo27 September 2026
- L3-4Philadelphia Union20 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Major League Soccer table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 38 | 36 | +2 | 41 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 35 | 72 | -37 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Seattle Sounders vs Sporting Kansas City
- 2 October 2026Seattle Sounders 2–1 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 2 May 2026Sporting Kansas City 1–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 25 August 2025Seattle Sounders 5–2 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 13 July 2025Sporting Kansas City 2–3 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
- 15 September 2024Seattle Sounders 2–0 Sporting Kansas CityMajor League Soccer
- 9 June 2024Sporting Kansas City 2–1 Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer
Leading scorers: Seattle Sounders and Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
GoalsAssists
- D. Joveljić121
Sporting Kansas City
No player in Major League Soccer's leading scorers — 35 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.