2 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Cyprus vs Armenia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

GSP Stadium, Nicosia
Referee: Mohammad Al-Emara, Finland
Full time2 – 0

Final score: Cyprus 2-0 Armenia.

Before kick-off the model made it 43% Cyprus, 29% draw, 28% Armenia — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Cyprus at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Cyprus99%Draw1%Armenia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Leonidas·Konomis
19'
26'
Edgar Sevikyan
⚽Andronikos Kakoullisassist: Ioannis Pittas
31'
37'
Artem Bandikyan
45'
🔁Edgar Sevikyanout: Narek Grigoryan
•Kostas Pileas
51'
Kostas Pileas
52'
52'
🔁Artem Bandikyanout: Davit Terteryan
🔁Andronikos Kakoullisout: Giorgos Malekkidis
54'
63'
🔁Erik Simonyanout: Ugochukwu Iwu
63'
🔁Artur Miranyanout: Karen Nalbandyan
🔁Loizos Loizouout: Marinos Tzionis
68'
🔁Marcus Edwardsout: A. Neophytou
68'
78'
🔁Gor Manvelyanout: narek hovhannisyan
🔁Grigoris Kastanosout: Kostakis Artymatas
84'
🔁Ioannis Pittasout: Stavros Georgiou
84'

Match stats — Cyprus vs Armenia

33%Possession67%
8Shots17
4On target5
1Corners11

Line-ups

Cyprus 4-2-3-1
  • 1FabianoG
  • 15L. KonomisD
  • 4H. KyprianouD
  • 3N. PanagiotouD
  • 2K. PileasD
  • 16P. AndreouM
  • 20G. KastanosM
  • 10L. LoizouM
  • 23M. EdwardsM
  • 11A. KakoullisM
  • 9I. PittasF
Substitutes
  • 8C. KyriakouM
  • 14G. MalekkidesD
  • 18K. ArtymatasM
  • 22N. MichaelG
  • 13I. KostiM
  • 19S. GeorgiouF
  • 17A. ChristouD
  • 7A. NeophytouF
  • 12A. ParaskevasG
Coach: A. Mantzios
Armenia 4-3-3
  • 12A. BeglaryanG
  • 3E. PiloyanD
  • 22E. SimonyanD
  • 4G. HarutyunyanD
  • 21N. TiknizyanD
  • 2A. BandikyanM
  • 8K. HovhannisyanM
  • 10E. SpertsyanM
  • 7E. SevikyanF
  • 18A. MiranyanF
  • 14G. ManvelyanF
Substitutes
  • 23N. HovhannisyanF
  • 16G. MatinyanG
  • 11N. GrigoryanF
  • 1A. MishievG
  • 19K. MuradyanM
  • 15K. NalbandyanM
  • 5A. PetrosyanD
  • 20D. TerteryanD
  • 9N. AghasaryanM
Coach: E. Melikyan

Form going into Cyprus vs Armenia

Cyprus

  • D0-0away to Latvia28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Montenegro25 September 2026

Armenia

  • L2-3Montenegro28 September 2026
  • W2-0Latvia25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Cyprus421153+27
3Armenia411245-14

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Cyprus vs Armenia

  • 2 October 2026Cyprus 2–0 ArmeniaUEFA Nations League
  • 28 March 2023Armenia 2–2 CyprusFriendlies
  • 13 November 2017Armenia 3–2 CyprusFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.