2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica
Referee: Oleksiy Derevinskyi, Ukraine
Full time1 – 1

Final score: Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-1 Sweden.

Before kick-off the model made it 35% Bosnia & Herzegovina, 31% draw, 34% Sweden — fair odds of 2.86, 3.23 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bosnia & Herzegovina at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Bosnia & Herzegovina4%Draw93%Sweden3%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

18'
•Viktor Gyökeres
31'
🔁Carl Starfeltout: Eric Smith
61'
⚽Viktor Gyökeresassist: Alexander Bernhardsson
🔁Edin Džekoout: Haris Tabaković
63'
76'
🔁Besfort Zeneliout: Lucas Bergvall
76'
🔁Alexander Bernhardssonout: Williot Swedberg
🔁Ermedin Demirovićout: Jovo Lukić
76'
🔁Ivan Bašićout: Ermin Mahmić
76'
⚽Kerim Alajbegovic
80'
🔁Nikola Katićout: Zinedin Smajlovic
87'
🔁Kerim Alajbegovicout: Ivan Šunjić
87'
90+5'
🔁Sebastian Nanasiout: Ken Sema

Match stats — Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

44%Possession56%
4Shots8
2On target4
4Corners0

Line-ups

Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-4-2
  • 12S. HamzićG
  • 15A. MemićD
  • 18N. KatićD
  • 4T. MuharemovićD
  • 5S. KolašinacD
  • 20E. BajraktarevicM
  • 13I. BašićM
  • 8A. GigovićM
  • 19Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
  • 10E. DemirovićF
  • 11E. DžekoF
Substitutes
  • 17L. ĐurićM
  • 1M. JurkasG
  • 9J. LukićF
  • 16Ermin MahmićM
  • 3A. MalicD
  • 2N. MujakićD
  • 7N. OmerovićF
  • 21S. RadeljićD
  • 6Z. SmajlovićD
Coach: S. Barbarez
Sweden 4-4-2
  • 12V. JohanssonG
  • 14E. SkoglundD
  • 15C. StarfeltD
  • 3V. LindelöfD
  • 5G. GudmundssonD
  • 21A. BernhardssonM
  • 20H. LarssonM
  • 16J. KarlströmM
  • 19S. NanasiM
  • 22B. ZeneliF
  • 17V. GyökeresF
Substitutes
  • 18S. DahlD
  • 10H. BolinM
  • 2F. BeijmoD
  • 23N. TörnqvistG
  • 11W. SwedbergF
  • 8D. SvenssonD
  • 4E. SmithM
  • 13K. SemaM
  • 1M. EllborgG
Coach: G. Potter

Form going into Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

Bosnia & Herzegovina

  • W4-2away to Romania28 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Poland25 September 2026

Sweden

  • W3-1Poland28 September 2026
  • W2-1Romania25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Bosnia & Herzegovina422063+38
1Sweden431073+410

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Sweden

  • 2 October 2026Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1 SwedenUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Bosnia & Herzegovina and Sweden

Bosnia & Herzegovina

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 6 league goals as a side.

Sweden

GoalsAssists

  • V. Gyökeres40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.