2 October 2026, 16:00 UTC

Latvia vs Montenegro UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Skonto, Riga
Referee: Radoslav Gidzhenov, Bulgaria
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Latvia 1-2 Montenegro.

Before kick-off the model made it 23% Latvia, 29% draw, 48% Montenegro — fair odds of 4.35, 3.45 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Montenegro at 48% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Latvia0%Draw3%Montenegro97%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽Vasilije Adzicassist: Risto Radunović
🔁Roberts Savalnieksout: Raivis Jurkovskis
28'
Antonijs Černomordijs
39'
56'
⚽Vasilije Adzic
60'
🔁Risto Radunovićout: Marko Perović
61'
🔁Marko Jankovićout: viktor djukanovic
61'
🔁Milutin Osmajićout: Milos Brnovic
🔁Antonijs Černomordijsout: Eduards Daskevics
65'
🔁Roberts Uldriķisout: Vladislavs Gutkovskis
65'
68'
🔁Nikola Krstovićout: Aleksa Latkovic
78'
🔁Stevan Jovetićout: Dušan Vuković
🔁Dmitrijs Zelenkovsout: Kristers Cudars
78'
🔁danila patijcuksout: Markuss Strods
78'
⚽Markuss Strodsassist: Kristers Cudars
82'
90+4'
Aleksa Latkovic

Match stats — Latvia vs Montenegro

51%Possession49%
14Shots14
2On target6
5Corners2

Line-ups

Latvia 5-4-1
  • 23R. MatrevicsG
  • 11R. SavaļnieksD
  • 21D. MeļņiksD
  • 5A. ČernomordijsD
  • 4O. VientiessD
  • 3D. CirkinD
  • 6D. PatijčuksM
  • 10L. VapneM
  • 15D. ZelenkovsM
  • 14A. CigaņiksM
  • 20R. UldriķisF
Substitutes
  • 2D. BalodisD
  • 18A. AleksanjanM
  • 7E. DašķevičsF
  • 8E. EmsisM
  • 9V. GutkovskisF
  • 13R. JurkovskisD
  • 12F. OrolsG
  • 1N. PuriņšG
  • 22A. SaveļjevsM
Coach: P. Nicolato
Montenegro 4-3-3
  • 1B. PopovićG
  • 7M. VešovićD
  • 6S. RubežićD
  • 5I. VujačićD
  • 3R. RadunovićD
  • 8M. JankovićM
  • 22S. LončarM
  • 17Vasilije AdžićM
  • 20M. OsmajićF
  • 9N. KrstovićF
  • 10S. JovetićF
Substitutes
  • 14S. MilićD
  • 13I. NikićG
  • 16M. PerovićM
  • 12D. PetkovićG
  • 2M. RoganovićD
  • 15S. SavićD
  • 23D. VukovićF
  • 4M. BrnovićM
  • 18A. LatkovićM
Coach: Mirko Vucinić

Form going into Latvia vs Montenegro

Latvia

  • D0-0Cyprus28 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Armenia25 September 2026

Montenegro

  • W3-2away to Armenia28 September 2026
  • W2-1Cyprus25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Latvia401326-41
1Montenegro431074+310

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Latvia vs Montenegro

  • 2 October 2026Latvia 1–2 MontenegroUEFA Nations League
  • 7 September 2021Montenegro 0–0 LatviaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 24 March 2021Latvia 1–2 MontenegroWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 7 October 2020Montenegro 1–1 LatviaFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.