2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Poland vs Romania UEFA Nations League prediction & result

National Stadium Warsaw, Warsaw
Referee: Urs Schnyder
Full time6 – 0

Final score: Poland 6-0 Romania.

Before kick-off the model made it 37% Poland, 28% draw, 35% Romania — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Poland at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

22'
Radu Drăguşin
⚽Robert Lewandowski (pen)
24'
27'
🔁Valentin Mihăilăout: Andrei Coubiș
35'
Virgil Ghiță
39'
Tudor Băluță
Robert Lewandowski
42'
⚽Robert Lewandowskiassist: Nicola Zalewski
47'
⚽Virgil Ghiță (OG)
49'
Karol Świderski
57'
⚽Piotr Zieliński
62'
🔁Wiktor Nowakout: Kacper Urbanski
63'
🔁Matty Cashout: Norbert Wojtuszek
63'
⚽Jan Bednarekassist: Sebastian Szymański
66'
67'
🔁Dennis Manout: Bogdan Racovitan
67'
🔁Nicușor Bancuout: Andrei Borza
67'
🔁Ianis Hagiout: Marius Marin
🔁Piotr Zielińskiout: Bartosz Ślisz
71'
🔁Sebastian Szymańskiout: Marcel Regula
71'
73'
Andrei Borza
78'
🔁Răzvan Marinout: Catalin Cirjan
🔁Nicola Zalewskiout: Oskar Pietuszewski
78'
⚽Robert Lewandowskiassist: Oskar Pietuszewski
86'

Match stats — Poland vs Romania

67%Possession33%
24Shots10
9On target3
7Corners1

Line-ups

Poland 3-4-2-1
  • 1M. BułkaG
  • 5J. BednarekD
  • 2M. CashD
  • 14J. KiwiorD
  • 19P. FrankowskiM
  • 20S. SzymańskiM
  • 10P. ZielińskiM
  • 16W. NowakM
  • 11K. ŚwiderskiM
  • 21N. ZalewskiM
  • 9R. LewandowskiF
Substitutes
  • 4T. KędzioraD
  • 22S. AbramowiczG
  • 12M. KochalskiG
  • 7O. PietuszewskiF
  • 23K. PotulskiD
  • 15T. PuchaczD
  • 18M. RegułaM
  • 17M. SkóraśF
  • 6B. SliszM
Coach: J. Urban
Romania 4-3-1-2
  • 12O. HindrichG
  • 2A. RațiuD
  • 3R. DrăgușinD
  • 5V. GhițăD
  • 11N. BancuD
  • 18R. MarinM
  • 17T. BăluțăM
  • 13V. MihăilăM
  • 20D. ManF
  • 9D. BîrligeaF
  • 14I. HagiF
Substitutes
  • 8A. CicâldăuM
  • 7F. TănaseM
  • 23T. StrataD
  • 10N. StanciuM
  • 1I. RaduG
  • 21O. MoruțanF
  • 4A. CoubișD
  • 16V. CojocaruG
  • 19C. CîrjanM
Coach: G. Hagi

Form going into Poland vs Romania

Poland

  • L1-3away to Sweden28 September 2026
  • D0-0Bosnia & Herzegovina25 September 2026

Romania

  • L2-4Bosnia & Herzegovina28 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Sweden25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Poland411274+34
4Romania4004313-100

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Poland vs Romania

  • 2 October 2026Poland 6–0 RomaniaUEFA Nations League
  • 10 June 2017Poland 3–1 RomaniaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
  • 11 November 2016Romania 0–3 PolandWorld Cup - Qualification Europe

Leading scorers: Poland and Romania

Poland

GoalsAssists

  • R. Lewandowski30

Romania

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.