2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Hungary vs Georgia UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Puskás Aréna, Budapest
Referee: Srdan Jovanovic, Serbia
Full time1 – 0

Final score: Hungary 1-0 Georgia.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Hungary, 29% draw, 26% Georgia — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Hungary at 45% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Hungary97%Draw3%Georgia0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

33'
Otar Kiteishvili
⚽Milos Kerkezassist: Dániel Lukács
35'
45'
🔁Irakli Yegoianout: Giorgi Kochorashvili
50'
🔁Otar Kiteishviliout: Anzor Mekvabishvili
🔁Milan Tóthout: Donat Barany
57'
🔁Alex Tóthout: Milan Vitális
57'
63'
🔁Georgiy Tsitaishviliout: Giorgi Kvernadze
63'
🔁Georges Mikautadzeout: Budu Zivzivadze
67'
Giorgi Kochorashvili
🔁Zsolt Nagyout: Rajmund Tóth
69'
Milos Kerkez
74'
76'
🔁Giorgi Chakvetadzeout: Zuriko Davitashvili
🔁Dániel Lukácsout: Gabor Jurek
80'
🔁Dominik Szoboszlaiout: Tamás Szűcs
80'
Tamás Szűcs
82'
Milan Vitális
85'

Match stats — Hungary vs Georgia

42%Possession58%
26Shots8
8On target3
8Corners4

Line-ups

Hungary 4-2-3-1
  • 1B. TóthG
  • 2A. OsváthD
  • 6W. OrbánD
  • 3M. CsingerD
  • 11M. KerkezD
  • 13A. SchäferM
  • 21A. TóthM
  • 20M. TóthM
  • 10D. SzoboszlaiM
  • 18Z. NagyM
  • 16D. LukacsF
Substitutes
  • 23Á. DoktoricsM
  • 8M. VitálisM
  • 4B. VárkonyiD
  • 14R.TóthM
  • 7Tamás SzücsM
  • 19J. SzalaiF
  • 9D. BárányF
  • 15Á. CsongvaiM
  • 12B. Gundel-TakácsG
Coach: M. Rossi
Georgia 3-4-1-2
  • 1G. MamardashviliG
  • 5S. GoglichidzeD
  • 3L. DvaliD
  • 4L. LochoshviliD
  • 2O. KakabadzeM
  • 18I. YegoianM
  • 8O. KiteishviliM
  • 19G. TsitaishviliM
  • 10G. ChakvetadzeM
  • 22G. MikautadzeF
  • 7K. KvaratskheliaF
Substitutes
  • 21J. TabidzeD
  • 20S. SazonovD
  • 14A. MekvabishviliM
  • 15G. MamageishviliM
  • 12S. LobzhanidzeF
  • 17G. KvernadzeF
  • 6G. KochorashviliM
  • 23L. GugeshashviliG
  • 9Z. DavitashviliF
Coach: R. Svanadze

Form going into Hungary vs Georgia

Hungary

  • D0-0away to Northern Ireland28 September 2026
  • L0-1Ukraine25 September 2026

Georgia

  • D0-0Ukraine28 September 2026
  • L0-1Northern Ireland25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
2Hungary421132+17
4Georgia402202-22

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Hungary vs Georgia

  • 2 October 2026Hungary 1–0 GeorgiaUEFA Nations League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.