France vs Italy UEFA Nations League prediction & result
Final score: France 1-1 Italy.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% France, 30% draw, 28% Italy — fair odds of 2.38, 3.33 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Nations League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts France at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — France vs Italy
Line-ups
- 16M. MaignanG
- 2P. KaluluD
- 22J. JacquetD
- 4D. UpamecanoD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 9R. CherkiM
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 11M. OliseF
- 7O. DembéléF
- 20D. DouéF
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 23J. ButezG
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 13A. DioufM
- 8M. KonéM
- 5J. KoundéD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 19E. LepaulF
- 1G. RestesG
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 2M. KayodeD
- 19G. ScalviniD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 8S. TonaliM
- 10N. FagioliM
- 20S. EspositoF
- 7F. EspositoF
- 9M. KeanF
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 18N. BarellaM
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 17D. MaldiniF
- 23G. ManciniD
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 21A. VergaraM
Form going into France vs Italy
France
- W1-0away to Belgium28 September 2026
- W1-0away to Türkiye25 September 2026
Italy
- W4-1away to Türkiye28 September 2026
- L0-2Belgium25 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 10 |
| 2 | Italy | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: France vs Italy
- 2 October 2026France 1–1 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 17 November 2024Italy 1–3 FranceUEFA Nations League
- 6 September 2024France 1–3 ItalyUEFA Nations League
- 1 June 2018France 3–1 ItalyFriendlies
- 17 June 2008France 0–2 ItalyEuro Championship
Leading scorers: France and Italy
France
GoalsAssists
- M. Olise42
Italy
No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.