2 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Kazakhstan vs Moldova UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Astana Arena, Astana
Referee: Marian Barbu, Romania
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova.

Before kick-off the model made it 47% Kazakhstan, 29% draw, 24% Moldova — fair odds of 2.13, 3.45 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Kazakhstan at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Kazakhstan0%Draw5%Moldova95%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

45+1'
⚽Nicky Clescenco
🔁Ramazan Orazovout: Erkin Tapalov
45'
🔁Elkhan Astanovout: Azamat Tuyakbaev
45'
45'
🔁Vladimir Frateaout: Nikita Motpan
50'
⚽Petru popescuassist: Sergiu Perciun
59'
🔁Nicky Clescencoout: Victor Stina
🔁Ramazan·Karimovout: Artur Shushenachev
59'
⚽Nuraly Alipassist: Bauyrzhan Islamkhan
64'
🔁Aleksandr Mrynskiyout: Nauryzbek Zhagorov
66'
🔁Temirlan Erlanovout: Sergey Malyy
74'
75'
🔁Oleg Reabciukout: Mihail Stefan
Galymzhan Kenzhebek
80'
86'
🔁Ioan-Calin Revencoout: Ovidiu David
86'
🔁Vadim Rațăout: Daniel Dumbravanu
Yan Vorogovskiy
89'

Match stats — Kazakhstan vs Moldova

65%Possession35%
19Shots16
4On target8
11Corners4

Line-ups

Kazakhstan 4-2-3-1
  • 16A. ZarutskiyG
  • 13A. MrynskiyD
  • 23T. ErlanovD
  • 3N. AlipD
  • 11Y. VorogovskiyD
  • 20R. OrazovM
  • 18D. KaramanM
  • 21E. AstanovM
  • 9B. IslamkhanM
  • 7G. KenzhebekM
  • 19R. KarimovF
Substitutes
  • 12T. AnarbekovG
  • 8Z. AmirD
  • 17S. BasmanovF
  • 5D. KasabulatD
  • 6A. KassymD
  • 2S. MaliyD
  • 10A. ShushenachevF
  • 22E. TapalovD
  • 15A. TuyakbayevM
Coach: J. van 't Schip
Moldova 5-3-2
  • 12D. CeleadnicG
  • 8I. RevencoD
  • 4V. BabogloD
  • 18I. IovuD
  • 6M. GherasimencovD
  • 2O. ReabciukD
  • 14Vladimir FrateaM
  • 22V. RaţăM
  • 9S. PerciunM
  • 15Petru PopescuF
  • 20N. CleșcencoF
Substitutes
  • 13S. CojocariM
  • 5C. CucoșD
  • 17O. DavidM
  • 19D. DumbrăvanuD
  • 16D. ForovF
  • 21D. MandrîcencoM
  • 7N. MoțpanM
  • 3M. ȘtefanD
  • 11V. StînăM
Coach: L. Popescu

Form going into Kazakhstan vs Moldova

Kazakhstan

  • L1-2away to Slovakia29 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Faroe Islands26 September 2026

Moldova

  • D1-1Faroe Islands29 September 2026
  • L0-2away to Slovakia26 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Kazakhstan402257-22
3Moldova411238-54

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Kazakhstan vs Moldova

  • 2 October 2026Kazakhstan 1–2 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
  • 29 March 2022Kazakhstan 0–1 MoldovaUEFA Nations League
  • 24 March 2022Moldova 1–2 KazakhstanUEFA Nations League
  • 21 February 2019Kazakhstan 1–0 MoldovaFriendlies
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.