2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Belgium vs Türkiye UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Liege
Referee: Rohit Saggi, Norway
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Belgium 3-0 Türkiye.

Before kick-off the model made it 49% Belgium, 26% draw, 25% Türkiye — fair odds of 2.04, 3.85 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Belgium at 49% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Belgium99%Draw1%Türkiye0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

⚽Kevin De Bruyneassist: Dodi Lukebakio
10'
Dodi Lukebakio
26'
Youri Tielemans
30'
45'
🔁Baris Alper Yilmazout: Yunus Akgün
56'
Abdulkerim Bardakçı
⚽Kevin De Bruyneassist: Youri Tielemans
59'
🔁Hans Vanakenout: Romeo Lavia
61'
🔁Dodi Lukebakioout: Romelu Lukaku
61'
66'
🔁Oğuz Aydınout: Ilhan Fakili
67'
🔁Kerem Aktürkoğluout: Deniz Gül
71'
Merih Demiral
73'
🔁Bartuğ Elmazout: Salih Özcan
🔁Mika Godtsout: Leandro Trossard
75'
⚽Romelu Lukakuassist: Charles De Ketelaere
76'
Kevin De Bruyne
80'
🔁Charles De Ketelaereout: Malick Fofana
82'
🔁Kevin De Bruyneout: Loïs Openda
82'
85'
🔁Ismail Yüksekout: Demir Ege Tıknaz
90+2'
Arda Güler
Nathan Ngoy
90+2'

Match stats — Belgium vs Türkiye

54%Possession46%
17Shots23
10On target8
2Corners5

Line-ups

Belgium 4-3-3
  • 1S. LammensG
  • 21T. CastagneD
  • 15N. NgoyD
  • 4B. MecheleD
  • 5M. De CuyperD
  • 7K. De BruyneM
  • 8Y. TielemansM
  • 20H. VanakenM
  • 14D. LukebakioF
  • 17C. De KetelaereF
  • 22M. GodtsF
Substitutes
  • 16K. De WinterD
  • 2Z. DebastD
  • 19M. FofanaF
  • 6R. LaviaM
  • 9R. LukakuF
  • 11L. OpendaF
  • 13M. PendersG
  • 23N. RaskinM
  • 18J. SeysD
Coach: M. van Bommel
Türkiye 4-4-2
  • 1U. ÇakırG
  • 2Z. ÇelikD
  • 3M. DemiralD
  • 14A. BardakcıD
  • 20F. KadıoğluD
  • 18O. AydınM
  • 6B. ElmazM
  • 16İ. YüksekM
  • 7K. AktürkoğluM
  • 10A. GülerF
  • 21B. YılmazF
Substitutes
  • 4E. TopçuD
  • 8E. TıknazM
  • 23M. ŞengezerG
  • 5S. ÖzcanM
  • 17İ. KahveciM
  • 15O. KabakD
  • 9D. GülF
  • 11I. FakiliF
  • 22M. EskihellaçD
Coach: V. Montella

Form going into Belgium vs Türkiye

Belgium

  • L0-1France28 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Italy25 September 2026

Türkiye

  • L1-4Italy28 September 2026
  • L0-1France25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Belgium420265+16
4Türkiye4004211-90

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Belgium vs Türkiye

  • 2 October 2026Belgium 3–0 TürkiyeUEFA Nations League

Leading scorers: Belgium and Türkiye

Belgium

GoalsAssists

  • D. Lukebakio21

Türkiye

No player in UEFA Nations League's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.