2 October 2026, 18:45 UTC

Ukraine vs Northern Ireland UEFA Nations League prediction & result

Štadión Antona Malatinského, Trnava
Referee: Jasper Vergoote, Belgium
Full time0 – 3

Final score: Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland.

Before kick-off the model made it 42% Ukraine, 31% draw, 27% Northern Ireland — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Ukraine at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Ukraine0%Draw1%Northern Ireland99%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

9'
⚽Ciaron Brown
22'
⚽Isaac Priceassist: Kieran Morrison
🔁Volodymyr Brazhkoout: Egor Nazaryna
56'
Mykola Matvienko
57'
61'
⚽Ciaron Brownassist: Pierce Charles
🔁Valeriy Bondarout: Danylo Sikan
63'
🔁Andriy Yarmolenkoout: Oleksandr Zubkov
63'
🔁Roman Yaremchukout: Matviy Ponomarenko
63'
64'
Brodie Spencer
67'
🔁Isaac Priceout: Justin Devenny
🔁Heorhii Sudakovout: Oleksandr Nazarenko
68'
77'
🔁Kieran Morrisonout: Patrick Kelly
77'
🔁Jamie Donleyout: Josh Magennis
84'
🔁Tom Atchesonout: Paddy McNair
84'
🔁Terry Devlinout: Ceadach O'Neill
Matviy Ponomarenko
88'
Danylo Sikan
88'

Match stats — Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

73%Possession27%
11Shots10
2On target3
7Corners1

Line-ups

Ukraine 4-1-4-1
  • 23D. RiznykG
  • 5V. BondarD
  • 13I. ZabarnyiD
  • 3E. SarapiyD
  • 22M. MatvienkoD
  • 6V. BrazhkoM
  • 7A. YarmolenkoM
  • 18O. OcheretkoM
  • 15V. TsygankovM
  • 8H. SudakovM
  • 9R. YaremchukF
Substitutes
  • 2I. KrupskyiD
  • 21I. KrasnopirF
  • 4T. MykhavkoD
  • 17O. NazarenkoM
  • 19E. NazarynaM
  • 11M. PonomarenkoF
  • 10M. ShaparenkoM
  • 14D. SikanF
  • 12A. TrubinG
Coach: Andrea Maldera
Northern Ireland 5-4-1
  • 1P. CharlesG
  • 20B. SpencerD
  • 4Tom AtchesonD
  • 15Ruairi McConvilleD
  • 22C. BrownD
  • 2T. DevlinD
  • 7K. MorrisonM
  • 5T. HumeM
  • 19S. CharlesM
  • 14I. PriceM
  • 10J. DonleyF
Substitutes
  • 6J. ThompsonM
  • 11P. SmythF
  • 23B. Peacock-FarrellG
  • 8C. O’NeillF
  • 17P. McNairD
  • 21J. MagennisF
  • 16Patrick KellyM
  • 12C. HazardG
  • 18B. GrahamF
Coach: M. O'Neill

Form going into Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

Ukraine

  • D0-0away to Georgia28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Hungary25 September 2026

Northern Ireland

  • D0-0Hungary28 September 2026
  • W1-0away to Georgia25 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
3Ukraine411225-34
1Northern Ireland422040+48

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Ukraine vs Northern Ireland

  • 2 October 2026Ukraine 0–3 Northern IrelandUEFA Nations League
  • 3 June 2021Ukraine 1–0 Northern IrelandFriendlies
  • 16 June 2016Ukraine 0–2 Northern IrelandEuro Championship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.