Helmond Sport vs Heracles Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Helmond Sport 2-2 Heracles.
Before kick-off the model made it 33% Helmond Sport, 30% draw, 37% Heracles — fair odds of 3.03, 3.33 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heracles at 37% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals, and a card each of the 2 sendings-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Helmond Sport vs Heracles
Line-ups
- 1M. BergsenG
- 20S. DekkersD
- 4B. KoglinD
- 43T. LandheerD
- 5T. PollD
- 7J. van der SluijsM
- 6M. LudwigM
- 44Xander van der VeldeM
- 8Pol LlonchM
- 11L. CiceroF
- 34T. EssakkatiF
- 14Brian van den BoogaardD
- 23A. El MaachG
- 30K. EkoliF
- 22A. DizdarevićM
- 10D. HuibertsM
- 94Mauro LenaertsF
- 3F. Van Den EyndenD
- 2R. van BreeD
- 21Ward van SleeuwenG
- 1F. de KeijzerG
- 15David VicenteD
- 4D. MiraniD
- 14M. WruschD
- 25MannyD
- 5D. van der KustM
- 32S. SchepermanM
- 7C. AbbasM
- 17T. van GilstM
- 18M. HauswirthM
- 27J. N'djoliF
- 3Mario BoracD
- 10T. BrunsM
- 35S. BultmanD
- 8M. EngelsM
- 16T. JansinkG
- 26D. van KaamM
- 23M. te WierikD
- 33L. ZeevalkinkG
- 6D. TomićM
Form going into Helmond Sport vs Heracles
Helmond Sport
- L0-2away to MVV26 September 2026
- L1-2away to Den Bosch18 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2111 September 2026
Heracles
- W2-0Vitesse26 September 2026
- L0-1away to Almere City FC18 September 2026
- W3-2Jong AZ11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Helmond Sport | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 19 | -3 | 9 |
| 1 | Heracles | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 12 | +19 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Helmond Sport vs Heracles
- 2 October 2026Helmond Sport 2–2 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 5 August 2023Heracles 2–0 Helmond SportFriendlies Clubs
- 21 April 2023Helmond Sport 0–1 HeraclesEerste Divisie
- 23 September 2022Heracles 2–0 Helmond SportEerste Divisie
Leading scorers: Helmond Sport and Heracles
Helmond Sport
No player in Eerste Divisie's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Heracles
GoalsAssists
- J. N'djoli111
- T. van Gilst72
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.