Vitesse vs NAC Breda Eerste Divisie prediction & result
Final score: Vitesse 2-2 NAC Breda.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Vitesse, 31% draw, 33% NAC Breda — fair odds of 2.78, 3.23 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Eerste Divisie predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitesse at 36% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Line-ups
- 1C. van den BergG
- 24N. MarkeloD
- 17V. ZumberiD
- 55M. SteffenD
- 22Xiamaro ThenuD
- 20F. de CarvalhoM
- 6M. SchikoraM
- 33M. MarschalkM
- 21A. SelloufM
- 19J. HiltermanF
- 9N. BannisF
- 38Koen te VeluweM
- 16P. DahboM
- 28A. BüttnerD
- 31M. BrullG
- 14O. AchouitarD
- 34Y. OuallilM
- 2S. BonnahD
- 13J. PintoF
- 11Yuval RanonF
- 1M. VerripsG
- 2B. LucassenD
- 4L. GreimlD
- 22R. HillenD
- 12J. Van den BerghD
- 78J. Van HeckeM
- 6M. BalardM
- 14K. SowahM
- 10M. NassohM
- 28C. BrymM
- 9M. SoumanoF
- 17M. BouchouariD
- 35M. BrouwersD
- 5J. CandelariaD
- 55B. GhalidiF
- 8F. Oldrup JensenM
- 23R. KortsmitG
- 31K. LamprouG
- 11G. MisehouyM
- 34I. NazihM
Form going into Vitesse vs NAC Breda
Vitesse
- L0-2away to Heracles26 September 2026
- W3-1Jong PSV U2119 September 2026
- L0-1away to Roda12 September 2026
NAC Breda
- W4-2FC Eindhoven26 September 2026
- W2-1away to De Graafschap20 September 2026
- L2-3Jong Utrecht11 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Eerste Divisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vitesse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | NAC Breda | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Vitesse vs NAC Breda
- 3 October 2026Vitesse 2–2 NAC BredaEerste Divisie
- 2 March 2019Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 9 December 2018NAC Breda 2–1 VitesseEredivisie
- 7 April 2018NAC Breda 1–0 VitesseEredivisie
- 12 August 2017Vitesse 4–1 NAC BredaEredivisie
- 7 February 2015NAC Breda 0–1 VitesseEredivisie
Leading scorers: Vitesse and NAC Breda
Vitesse
GoalsAssists
- N. Bannis93
NAC Breda
GoalsAssists
- C. Brym50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.