Deportes Tolima vs Chico Primera A prediction & result
Final score: Deportes Tolima 0-0 Chico.
Before kick-off the model made it 54% Deportes Tolima, 28% draw, 18% Chico — fair odds of 1.85, 3.57 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Colombian Primera A predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Deportes Tolima at 54% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Deportes Tolima vs Chico
Line-ups
- 1Neto VolpiG
- 3J. AnguloD
- 2A. AnguloD
- 30S. P. Barbosa GomezD
- 33J. MosqueraM
- 80B. RoviraM
- 32S. GuzmánM
- 8E. ValenciaM
- 7J. CabezasF
- 24A. ParraF
- 10L. SánchezF
- 18K. FlórezF
- 15Sergio AguayoF
- 19Joven SantiagoF
- 13M. OrtegaG
- 4D. PedrozoD
- 16V. ReyesM
- 11J. ValenciaF
- 26Nilder Yankarlos Zapata OlarteD
- 1D. AgudeloG
- 24C. MosqueraD
- 5J. AlomíaD
- 4J. MenaD
- 14C. BlancoD
- 17E. SarriaM
- 8S. SalazarM
- 6J. DíazM
- 16S. MeraM
- 22Alejandro MayaF
- 21J. PimentelF
- 10Y. CabreraM
- 29Luis CarabalíF
- 7F. CifuentesF
- 28Jesús Cárdenas
- 19J. Pimentel Betancourt
- 2D. PolancoD
- 11D. RamírezM
- 20sebastian viverosM
- 12B. ZapataG
Form going into Deportes Tolima vs Chico
Deportes Tolima
- D2-2away to Fortaleza FC27 September 2026
- D1-1America de Cali20 September 2026
Chico
- W3-0Deportivo Pasto25 September 2026
- L0-3away to Millonarios19 September 2026
- L1-2Alianza Valledupar16 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Deportes Tolima | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 20 |
| 14 | Chico | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Deportes Tolima vs Chico
- 3 October 2026Deportes Tolima 0–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 23 March 2026Chico 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 September 2025Deportes Tolima 4–0 ChicoPrimera A
- 2 April 2025Chico 1–4 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
- 15 September 2024Deportes Tolima 2–1 ChicoPrimera A
- 1 March 2024Chico 1–1 Deportes TolimaPrimera A
Leading scorers: Deportes Tolima and Chico
Deportes Tolima
GoalsAssists
- A. Parra84
Chico
No player in Primera A's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.