Chesterfield vs Tranmere League Two prediction & result
Final score: Chesterfield 4-2 Tranmere.
Before kick-off the model made it 47% Chesterfield, 28% draw, 25% Tranmere — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 6 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Chesterfield vs Tranmere
Line-ups
- 23R. BootG
- 33R. HuttonD
- 5K. McFadzeanD
- 6J. SimpsonD
- 19L. GordonD
- 8R. StirkM
- 20G. McEachranM
- 24D. MarkandayM
- 18L. MarshM
- 31J. RandallM
- 10L. BonisF
- 46T. PearceD
- 4T. NaylorM
- 7L. MandevilleM
- 37J. KoromaF
- 27K. DyerM
- 9F. BrydenF
- 26J. EcclestonD
- 12H. MaleG
- 2J. SeniorD
- 16B. FaulknerD
- 5N. SmithD
- 3J. SlaterD
- 6W. VaulksM
- 11T. ConlonM
- 17Z. OkoroM
- 10T. InceM
- 7Charlie Jay WhitakerM
- 9J. IronsideF
- 44R. WatsonM
- 13C. Boyce-ClarkeG
- 23P. BroughD
- 8S. FinleyM
- 29D. JonesF
- 24David KamaraF
- 22L. O'ConnorD
Form going into Chesterfield vs Tranmere
Chesterfield
- L1-2away to Cheltenham26 September 2026
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
Tranmere
- D1-1Walsall26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Exeter City19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Gillingham12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
| 13 | Tranmere | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Chesterfield vs Tranmere
- 3 October 2026Chesterfield 4–2 TranmereLeague Two
- 11 April 2026Chesterfield 1–1 TranmereLeague Two
- 25 October 2025Tranmere 1–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 5 April 2025Tranmere 4–0 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 7 December 2024Chesterfield 3–0 TranmereLeague Two
- 1 December 2012Tranmere 2–1 ChesterfieldFA Cup
Leading scorers: Chesterfield and Tranmere
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
- L. Bonis42
Tranmere
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.