Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham League Two prediction & result
Final score: Accrington Stanley 2-0 Cheltenham.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Accrington Stanley, 27% draw, 37% Cheltenham — fair odds of 2.78, 3.70 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cheltenham at 37% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
Line-ups
- 1L. MouldenG
- 28S. ConneelyD
- 22J. AndersonD
- 17D. MatthewsD
- 2D. LoveM
- 38C. O'BrienM
- 10Alex HendersonM
- 14Stefan MolsM
- 33D. TutondaM
- 23T. WaltonF
- 39J. WoodsF
- 20C. BrownF
- 27J. CatesbyF
- 8C. GrantM
- 21J. RogersonG
- 25J. SmithD
- 30C. WarrenF
- 3Oliver SmithD
- 23W. StanwayG
- 3J. TomkinsonD
- 5R. CundyD
- 25P. SweeneyD
- 4J. TomlinsonD
- 26J. ShipleyM
- 7B. StevensonM
- 19J. EvansM
- 8C. McCannM
- 14R. BroomM
- 18A. WeimannF
- 11J. BickerstaffF
- 1J. DayG
- 10G. MillerF
- 21G. NurseD
- 33F. WillcoxM
- 6J. WilsonD
- 9K. OtchereF
Form going into Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
Accrington Stanley
- D1-1away to Swindon Town26 September 2026
- D0-0Newport County19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barnet12 September 2026
Cheltenham
- W2-1Chesterfield26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Colchester19 September 2026
- W3-1away to Crawley Town12 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Accrington Stanley | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Cheltenham | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Accrington Stanley vs Cheltenham
- 3 October 2026Accrington Stanley 2–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 31 January 2026Accrington Stanley 3–1 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 6 September 2025Cheltenham 1–0 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 28 January 2025Accrington Stanley 0–0 CheltenhamLeague Two
- 1 October 2024Cheltenham 2–1 Accrington StanleyLeague Two
- 11 February 2023Cheltenham 0–0 Accrington StanleyLeague One
Leading scorers: Accrington Stanley and Cheltenham
Accrington Stanley
GoalsAssists
- C. Caton50
Cheltenham
GoalsAssists
- C. McCann70
- A. Weimann42
- J. Evans32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.