3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Morton vs Raith Rovers Championship prediction & result

Cappielow Park, Greenock
Referee: S. Murdoch
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Morton 1-2 Raith Rovers.

Before kick-off the model made it 27% Morton, 27% draw, 46% Raith Rovers — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2.

The model called the exact scoreline.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Raith Rovers at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Morton0%Draw4%Raith Rovers96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

16'
⚽J. Roweassist: K. Turner
P. Croker
26'
31'
🔁J. Robertsonout: D. Easton
⚽M. Garrityassist: C. Ballantyne
53'
55'
K. Turner
🔁S. Bashirout: D. Borso
57'
67'
⚽G. Oakleyassist: D. Easton
71'
🔁A. Lyallout: L. Vaughan
71'
🔁K. Turnerout: K. Montagu
🔁J. Longridgeout: L. Murphy
71'
🔁M. Garrityout: D. Black
83'
84'
🔁D. Eastonout: L. Stevenson

Line-ups

Morton 4-2-3-1
  • 31B. KinnearG
  • 2C. BallantyneD
  • 5P. CrokerD
  • 3J. LongridgeD
  • 52L. FairnieD
  • 21G. GillespieM
  • 27I. WilsonM
  • 20C. SandilandsM
  • 19Kerr RobertsonM
  • 17Sahil BashirM
  • 7M. GarrityF
Substitutes
  • 28L. MurphyD
  • 41S. MurdochG
  • 25M. CarseM
  • 12Dylan BorsoF
  • 35D. BlackD
  • 30J. O’TooleM
  • 29M. O'HalloranF
Coach: I. Murray
Raith Rovers 4-2-3-1
  • 1J. RaeG
  • 2J. RoweD
  • 6J. BairdD
  • 4P. HanlonD
  • 3Z. DelaneyD
  • 20S. BrownM
  • 8K. TurnerM
  • 11J. RobertsonM
  • 7A. LyallM
  • 15S. TiffoneyM
  • 9G. OakleyF
Substitutes
  • 10L. VaughanF
  • 16L. StevensonD
  • 25K. MontaguM
  • 22R. MillenD
  • 18P. McMullanF
  • 5C. FordyceD
  • 23D. EastonM
Coach: Dougie Imrie

Form going into Morton vs Raith Rovers

Morton

  • L0-2away to Inverness CT25 September 2026
  • L0-1Dunfermline19 September 2026
  • L1-4Livingston11 September 2026

Raith Rovers

  • L0-2Livingston25 September 2026
  • D0-0away to Partick19 September 2026
  • W4-0Arbroath12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Morton10118718-114
2Raith Rovers10622156+920

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Morton vs Raith Rovers

  • 3 October 2026Morton 1–2 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 11 April 2026Raith Rovers 3–2 MortonChampionship
  • 14 February 2026Morton 0–0 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 1 November 2025Raith Rovers 1–1 MortonChampionship
  • 6 September 2025Morton 0–1 Raith RoversChampionship
  • 26 April 2025Raith Rovers 1–1 MortonChampionship
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.