3 October 2026, 14:00 UTC

Livingston vs Ayr Utd Championship prediction & result

The Home of the Set Fare Arena, Livingston
Referee: L. Hogarth
Full time1 – 2

Final score: Livingston 1-2 Ayr Utd.

Before kick-off the model made it 55% Livingston, 25% draw, 20% Ayr Utd — fair odds of 1.82, 4.00 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Livingston at 55% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Livingston0%Draw9%Ayr Utd91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

8'
⚽O. Stirtonassist: R. Taylor
C. Palmer
10'
⚽R. Muirhead (pen)
19'
22'
R. Taylor
22'
L. McBeth
36'
⚽L. McBethassist: O. Stirton
J. Doherty
45'
🔁T. Sinclairout: G. Carey
46'
E. Danso
51'
🔁C. Palmerout: B. Anderson
62'
70'
🔁O. Stirtonout: K. Shanks
70'
🔁R. Lyonout: N. McAllister
72'
S. McMann
🔁E. Dansoout: S. May
76'
78'
K. Shanks
🔁S. Pittmanout: L. Polworth
80'
🔁B. van Hoevenout: A. Denholm
81'

Line-ups

Livingston 4-3-3
  • 28J. PriorG
  • 22J. DohertyD
  • 23Brooklyn KabongoloD
  • 5R. McGowanD
  • 26C. MontañoD
  • 8S. PittmanM
  • 20E. DansoM
  • 16C. PalmerM
  • 7T. SinclairF
  • 9R. MuirheadF
  • 19B. van HoevenF
Substitutes
  • 25B. AndersonF
  • 27G. CareyF
  • 30S. BlaneyD
  • 6A. DenholmM
  • 14J. HamiltonG
  • 2C. KerrD
  • 17S. MayF
  • 39L. PolworthM
  • 4J. WilkieD
Coach: G. Whelan
Ayr Utd 3-4-3
  • 1H. StoneG
  • 8L. KingD
  • 5K. HoltD
  • 3L. DickD
  • 32D. WatretM
  • 6R. LyonM
  • 20L. McBethM
  • 33S. McMannM
  • 12Olly WhyteF
  • 7O. StirtonF
  • 11R. TaylorF
Substitutes
  • 34J. DouglasM
  • 17Thomas HattonM
  • 9J. LandersF
  • 2N. McAllisterD
  • 25K. MitchellM
  • 38L. RussellG
  • 10K. ShanksF
  • 16B. SummersM
  • 21E. WalkerM
Coach: G. Naysmith

Form going into Livingston vs Ayr Utd

Livingston

  • W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
  • D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
  • W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026

Ayr Utd

  • L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
  • W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
  • L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Livingston104151411+313
7Ayr Utd103341011-112

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Livingston vs Ayr Utd

  • 3 October 2026Livingston 1–2 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 18 April 2025Livingston 5–0 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 22 February 2025Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
  • 21 December 2024Livingston 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
  • 19 October 2024Ayr Utd 1–2 LivingstonChampionship
  • 19 August 2023Livingston 2–0 Ayr UtdLeague Cup
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.