West Ham vs QPR Championship prediction & result
Final score: West Ham 1-1 QPR.
Before kick-off the model made it 56% West Ham, 25% draw, 19% QPR — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 56% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — West Ham vs QPR
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1M. HermansenG
- 2K. Walker-PetersD
- 15K. MavropanosD
- 3M. KilmanD
- 5MoratoD
- 28T. SoučekM
- 7A. EngelsM
- 20J. BowenM
- 14D. MukasaM
- 10M. SolomonM
- 11V. CastellanosF
- 23A. AreolaG
- 35E. AustböF
- 58A. GolambeckisD
- 27S. MagassaM
- 61L. OrfordM
- 19PabloF
- 9J. PiroeF
- 30O. ScarlesD
- 34J. VeltmanD
- 1P. CharlesG
- 2K. AdamsonD
- 3J. DunneD
- 6J. Clarke-SalterD
- 12B. KemperD
- 24N. MadsenM
- 5R. EdwardsM
- 18G. KamaraM
- 17K. PokuF
- 26Rayan Jawad KolliF
- 11P. SmythF
- 22R. KoneF
- 48T. LampteyD
- 27A. MbengueD
- 4L. MorrisonD
- 25Justin Patrick Nnamdi ObikwuF
- 20H. ValeM
- 40J. VaraneM
- 13C. WardG
- 33Leon ScarlettF
Form going into West Ham vs QPR
West Ham
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Bolton8 September 2026
QPR
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 29 | 12 | +17 | 19 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: West Ham vs QPR
- 9 October 2026West Ham 1–1 QPRChampionship
- 11 January 2026West Ham 2–1 QPRFA Cup
- 25 April 2015QPR 0–0 West HamPremier League
- 5 October 2014West Ham 2–0 QPRPremier League
- 19 January 2013West Ham 1–1 QPRPremier League
- 1 October 2012QPR 1–2 West HamPremier League
Leading scorers: West Ham and QPR
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.