Livingston vs Partick Championship prediction & result
Final score: Livingston 1-2 Partick.
Before kick-off the model made it 40% Livingston, 27% draw, 33% Partick — fair odds of 2.50, 3.70 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livingston at 40% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Livingston vs Partick
Livingston
- L1-2Ayr Utd3 October 2026
- W2-0away to Raith Rovers25 September 2026
- D2-2Inverness CT19 September 2026
- W4-1away to Morton11 September 2026
Partick
- W3-0Arbroath3 October 2026
- D0-0Raith Rovers19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stenhousemuir15 September 2026
- W1-0Ayr Utd5 September 2026
What these results say
- Livingston scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Livingston conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Livingston had three goals or more.
- Partick kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Partick had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Livingston | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 13 |
| 3 | Partick | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Livingston vs Partick
- 7 August 2026Partick 2–0 LivingstonChampionship
- 18 July 2026Livingston 1–1 PartickLeague Cup
- 16 May 2025Livingston 2–0 PartickPremiership
- 13 May 2025Partick 0–2 LivingstonPremiership
- 2 May 2025Livingston 0–1 PartickChampionship
- 28 February 2025Partick 1–1 LivingstonChampionship
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.