Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline Championship prediction & result
Final score: Ayr Utd 1-1 Dunfermline.
Before kick-off the model made it 27% Ayr Utd, 27% draw, 46% Dunfermline — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Championship predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dunfermline at 46% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Form going into Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
Ayr Utd
- W2-1away to Livingston3 October 2026
- L0-1Stenhousemuir25 September 2026
- W2-0away to Queen's Park18 September 2026
- L1-3Inverness CT12 September 2026
Dunfermline
- W1-0away to Morton19 September 2026
- W2-0Queen's Park12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Arbroath5 September 2026
- W1-0Raith Rovers28 August 2026
What these results say
- Ayr Utd scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Ayr Utd conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Dunfermline went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Dunfermline scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Dunfermline had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Ayr Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Ayr Utd vs Dunfermline
- 8 August 2026Dunfermline 1–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 7 April 2026Ayr Utd 0–3 DunfermlineChampionship
- 20 December 2025Dunfermline 2–3 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 31 October 2025Ayr Utd 0–1 DunfermlineChampionship
- 23 September 2025Dunfermline 0–1 Ayr UtdChampionship
- 29 March 2025Ayr Utd 3–0 DunfermlineChampionship
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.