Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Heart of Midlothian 5-0 St Mirren.
Before kick-off the model made it 61% Heart of Midlothian, 23% draw, 16% St Mirren — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Heart of Midlothian at 61% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 907 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 5 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1B. ReusG
- 23J. AltenaD
- 64M. Fagan-WalcottD
- 5J. McCartD
- 18H. MilneD
- 8AgeuM
- 78L. MendyM
- 7C. MillerM
- 10Cláudio BragaM
- 15J. McPakeM
- 21J. WilsonF
- 30R. FultonG
- 6O. McEnteeM
- 2C. BorchgrevinkD
- 17S. FindlayD
- 22T. MagnússonM
- 29S. KerjotaF
- 74R. MatoF
- 19S. GuendouzF
- 9J. WilliamsF
- 1J. ChapmanG
- 47C. RamsayD
- 13A. GogićD
- 53Henry FieldsonD
- 3D. JohnD
- 8R. CarrM
- 48P. NsioM
- 23C. MochrieM
- 30F. TaylorM
- 19Ismeal KabiaM
- 88K. PhillipsF
- 22M. FraserD
- 16L. ThomasM
- 4L. DonnellyM
- 6Louis JacksonD
- 9Eseosa SuleF
- 35Grant TamoseviciusG
- 37C. McEvoyM
- 10SamuM
- 20J. YoungF
Form going into Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
- D1-1away to Kilmarnock19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Falkirk15 September 2026
- W2-1Dundee6 September 2026
- W3-1away to Hibernian3 September 2026
St Mirren
- L0-3Dundee United19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers9 September 2026
- L1-2Celtic5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Kilmarnock2 September 2026
What these results say
- Heart of Midlothian scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Heart of Midlothian conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Heart of Midlothian.
- St Mirren failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St Mirren conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Heart of Midlothian | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 7 | St Mirren | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren
- 10 October 2026Heart of Midlothian 5–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 3 February 2026St Mirren 1–0 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 14 January 2026Heart of Midlothian 2–0 St MirrenPremiership
- 29 October 2025St Mirren 2–2 Heart of MidlothianPremiership
- 16 August 2025St Mirren 1–1 Heart of MidlothianLeague Cup
- 26 February 2025Heart of Midlothian 3–1 St MirrenPremiership
Leading scorers: Heart of Midlothian and St Mirren
Heart of Midlothian
GoalsAssists
- J. McPake34
- Cláudio Braga32
- C. Miller31
St Mirren
GoalsAssists
- K. Phillips30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.