Aberdeen vs St Johnstone Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Aberdeen 0-1 St Johnstone.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Aberdeen, 28% draw, 30% St Johnstone — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Aberdeen at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 27M. MüllerG
- 28C. CaddenD
- 22J. MilneD
- 5M. KnoesterD
- 21G. MolloyD
- 24N. Guinness-WalkerD
- 8B. LyonsM
- 40F. MarshallM
- 25C. RonanM
- 9A. MoulouaF
- 15K. NisbetF
- 32A. AremuM
- 17S. ArmstrongM
- 26D. HappeD
- 30D. KleinG
- 14H. MahouM
- 23L. MayoD
- 20T. OlusanyaF
- 11Lewis SmithF
- 7Tony YoganeF
- 1T. StewardG
- 33L. SmithD
- 19D. FinlaysonD
- 14M. FouldsD
- 26M. ToddM
- 42R. McAlearM
- 8J. HoltM
- 2E. AlıçM
- 11S. StantonM
- 99R. PatonM
- 9J. FowlerF
- 22D. SchmidtF
- 20R. SinclairG
- 10J. GullanF
- 18K. FotheringhamF
- 30J. CotterillM
- 6B. MikulićD
- 23L. ChalmersM
- 32J. CampbellM
- 7T. StevenF
Form going into Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
Aberdeen
- D1-1away to Hibernian19 September 2026
- W4-0away to Motherwell15 September 2026
- D0-0Kilmarnock5 September 2026
- L0-3away to Celtic2 September 2026
St Johnstone
- D1-1Falkirk19 September 2026
- L0-1Celtic9 September 2026
- W2-1Hibernian6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee2 September 2026
What these results say
- Aberdeen failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St Johnstone conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- St Johnstone failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- St Johnstone scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Aberdeen | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 8 |
| 5 | St Johnstone | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Aberdeen vs St Johnstone
- 11 October 2026Aberdeen 0–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 15 March 2025St Johnstone 0–0 AberdeenPremiership
- 7 December 2024Aberdeen 1–1 St JohnstonePremiership
- 5 August 2024St Johnstone 1–2 AberdeenPremiership
- 4 May 2024Aberdeen 1–0 St JohnstonePremiership
- 28 February 2024Aberdeen 0–2 St JohnstonePremiership
Leading scorers: Aberdeen and St Johnstone
Aberdeen
GoalsAssists
- K. Nisbet32
St Johnstone
GoalsAssists
- J. Fowler51
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.