Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Crystal Palace 3-1 Nottingham Forest.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Crystal Palace, 28% draw, 41% Nottingham Forest — fair odds of 3.23, 3.57 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nottingham Forest at 41% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44W. BenítezG
- 8J. LermaD
- 26C. RichardsD
- 6J. CanvotD
- 25A. KhalailiM
- 20A. WhartonM
- 23Q. TimberM
- 3T. MitchellM
- 18D. KamadaM
- 10Yeremy PinoM
- 22J. Strand LarsenF
- 7I. SarrF
- 19W. HughesM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 11D. McNeilF
- 30Óscar MinguezaD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 31R. MatthewsG
- 29E. GuessandF
- 9E. NketiahF
- 26M. SelsG
- 34O. AinaD
- 2O. DiomandeD
- 5MurilloD
- 27D. MuñozM
- 21X. SchlagerM
- 24J. McAteeM
- 3N. WilliamsM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 14D. NdoyeM
- 19L. DelapF
- 9C. WoodF
- 12JohnG
- 23JairD
- 25L. NetzD
- 8N. DomínguezM
- 7C. Hudson-OdoiF
- 6I. SangaréM
- 22R. YatesM
- 15A. KalimuendoF
Form going into Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
- D0-0away to Leeds20 September 2026
- L2-3Ipswich12 September 2026
- W3-2away to Fulham5 September 2026
- L1-4Manchester City28 August 2026
Nottingham Forest
- L0-1Coventry19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Aston Villa12 September 2026
- D0-0Tottenham5 September 2026
- D2-2away to Liverpool29 August 2026
What these results say
- Crystal Palace failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Crystal Palace conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nottingham Forest failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Nottingham Forest conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- 11 October 2026Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 1 February 2026Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 24 August 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 5 May 2025Crystal Palace 1–1 Nottingham ForestPremier League
- 21 October 2024Nottingham Forest 1–0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- 30 March 2024Nottingham Forest 1–1 Crystal PalacePremier League
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.