Liverpool vs Manchester City Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Liverpool 0-3 Manchester City.
Before kick-off the model made it 31% Liverpool, 25% draw, 44% Manchester City — fair odds of 3.23, 4.00 and 2.27. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manchester City at 44% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 1,748 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Liverpool vs Manchester City
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Alisson BeckerG
- 33R. AraújoD
- 5J. JacquetD
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6M. KerkezD
- 38R. GravenberchM
- 10A. Mac AllisterM
- 23Víctor MuñozM
- 7F. WirtzM
- 29B. BarcolaM
- 67L. KoumasF
- 73R. NgumohaF
- 14F. ChiesaF
- 42T. NyoniM
- 3W. EndoM
- 30J. FrimpongD
- 21K. TsimikasD
- 2J. GomezD
- 25G. MamardashviliG
- 53J. McConnellM
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 27Matheus NunesD
- 3Rúben DiasD
- 6M. GuéhiD
- 33N. O'ReillyD
- 5E. AndersonM
- 17E. FernándezM
- 7I. NdiayeM
- 10R. CherkiM
- 42A. SemenyoM
- 9E. HaalandF
- 37AllanF
- 32A. BouaddiM
- 11J. DokuF
- 8M. KovačićM
- 82R. LewisD
- 45A. KhusanovD
- 24J. GvardiolD
- 22Vitor NunesD
- 28G. RulliG
Form going into Liverpool vs Manchester City
Liverpool
- W1-0away to Bournemouth20 September 2026
- D0-0Fulham12 September 2026
- W2-0away to Ipswich4 September 2026
- D2-2Nottingham Forest29 August 2026
Manchester City
- W5-3Sunderland20 September 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester United13 September 2026
- W1-0Coventry5 September 2026
- W4-1away to Crystal Palace28 August 2026
What these results say
- Liverpool went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Liverpool scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Liverpool kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City won every one of these 4 matches.
- Manchester City scored in every one of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 9 |
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Liverpool vs Manchester City
- 11 October 2026Liverpool 0–3 Manchester CityPremier League
- 4 April 2026Manchester City 4–0 LiverpoolFA Cup
- 8 February 2026Liverpool 1–2 Manchester CityPremier League
- 9 November 2025Manchester City 3–0 LiverpoolPremier League
- 23 February 2025Manchester City 0–2 LiverpoolPremier League
- 1 December 2024Liverpool 2–0 Manchester CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Liverpool and Manchester City
Liverpool
GoalsAssists
- A. Isak40
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland60
- R. Cherki42
- A. Semenyo23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.