Hull City vs Everton Premier League prediction & result
Final score: Hull City 2-2 Everton.
Before kick-off the model made it 39% Hull City, 31% draw, 30% Everton — fair odds of 2.56, 3.23 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
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Has the model earned this number?
It puts Hull City at 39% here. Across 3,740 settled matches (as of 15 October 2026), 2,920 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Hull City vs Everton
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19K. TzolakisG
- 2L. CoyleD
- 6S. AjayiD
- 15J. EganD
- 32N. MendyD
- 3R. GilesD
- 11J. GelhardtM
- 25M. CrooksM
- 27R. SlaterM
- 7S. ThomasM
- 9O. McBurnieF
- 47R. VazF
- 42T. IroegbunamM
- 21E. StroudM
- 18B. Norton-CuffyD
- 5H. MoritaM
- 10M. BelloumiF
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 17P. McNairD
- 12D. PhillipsG
- 1J. PickfordG
- 2A. Maitland-NilesD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 5M. KeaneD
- 4J. BranthwaiteD
- 37J. GarnerM
- 45H. ArmstrongM
- 22B. JohnsonM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 10J. GrealishM
- 11T. BarryF
- 58B. GrahamF
- 19Tyrique GeorgeF
- 30H. HackneyM
- 34M. RöhlM
- 24C. AlcarazM
- 23C. NørgaardM
- 20T. DiblingF
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 12M. TraversG
Form going into Hull City vs Everton
Hull City
- L1-2away to Newcastle19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Chelsea12 September 2026
- D0-0Aston Villa5 September 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry29 August 2026
Everton
- W1-0Ipswich19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Tottenham12 September 2026
- D2-2Manchester United6 September 2026
- D1-1away to Bournemouth29 August 2026
What these results say
- Hull City failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Hull City scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Everton went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- Everton failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Everton scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Hull City vs Everton
- 11 October 2026Hull City 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 8 January 2022Hull City 2–3 EvertonFA Cup
- 18 March 2017Everton 4–0 Hull CityPremier League
- 30 December 2016Hull City 2–2 EvertonPremier League
- 1 January 2015Hull City 2–0 EvertonPremier League
- 3 December 2014Everton 1–1 Hull CityPremier League
Leading scorers: Hull City and Everton
Hull City
GoalsAssists
- M. Belloumi32
Everton
GoalsAssists
- T. Barry30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.