Motherwell vs Celtic Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Motherwell 0-2 Celtic.
Before kick-off the model made it 28% Motherwell, 25% draw, 47% Celtic — fair odds of 3.57, 4.00 and 2.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Celtic at 47% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 2 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Motherwell vs Celtic
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1A. PaulsenG
- 7T. SparrowD
- 2S. O'DonnellD
- 5M. MoormannD
- 45M. EmmanuelD
- 8L. FadingerM
- 63D. LevittM
- 77W. VogtM
- 11A. LowryM
- 71J. HodgeM
- 47S. Palmer-HouldenF
- 6J. McGheeD
- 15E. BjörgólfssonF
- 3J. Girdwood-ReichD
- 13J. KangaM
- 4Jamie Knight-LebelD
- 18Tawanda Jethro MaswanhiseF
- 21M. ConnellyG
- 19I. SaidF
- 27M. BoothM
- 1V. SinisaloG
- 51Colby DonovanD
- 47D. MurrayD
- 5L. ScalesD
- 63K. TierneyD
- 42C. McGregorM
- 22M. BaurM
- 11C. DuránM
- 8B. NygrenM
- 17S. TounektiM
- 9K. HøghF
- 6A. TrustyD
- 18O. SørensenM
- 21A. Oxlade-ChamberlainM
- 29Shumaira MheukaF
- 3J. LotombaD
- 7JotaF
- 26S. JohnstoneG
- 23H. HassanF
- 49J. ForrestM
Form going into Motherwell vs Celtic
Motherwell
- L1-2away to Dundee19 September 2026
- L0-4Aberdeen15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Rangers5 September 2026
- W3-0Dundee United2 September 2026
Celtic
- L0-1Rangers20 September 2026
- W1-0away to St Johnstone9 September 2026
- W2-1away to St Mirren5 September 2026
- W3-0Aberdeen2 September 2026
What these results say
- Motherwell failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
- Motherwell conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Motherwell had three goals or more.
- Celtic won 3 of these 4 matches.
- Celtic scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Motherwell | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 |
| 1 | Celtic | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 4 | +12 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Motherwell vs Celtic
- 11 October 2026Motherwell 0–2 CelticPremiership
- 13 May 2026Motherwell 2–3 CelticPremiership
- 14 March 2026Celtic 3–1 MotherwellPremiership
- 30 December 2025Motherwell 2–0 CelticPremiership
- 5 October 2025Celtic 3–2 MotherwellPremiership
- 2 February 2025Motherwell 1–3 CelticPremiership
Leading scorers: Motherwell and Celtic
Motherwell
GoalsAssists
- A. Lowry21
Celtic
GoalsAssists
- C. Durán43
- B. Nygren43
- K. Høgh31
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.