Rangers vs Kilmarnock Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Rangers 3-1 Kilmarnock.
Before kick-off the model made it 72% Rangers, 17% draw, 11% Kilmarnock — fair odds of 1.39, 5.88 and 9.09. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Rangers at 72% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 321 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 63.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.1%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1I. PandurG
- 21D. SterlingD
- 37E. FernandezD
- 24O. MakhanyaD
- 29J. PenriceD
- 6D. NeilM
- 43N. RaskinM
- 10Minsu KimM
- 20R. NaderiM
- 23D. GassamaM
- 19K. KelsyF
- 25T. RommensD
- 52Findlay CurtisF
- 42T. ChukwuaniM
- 26B. BouananiF
- 22V. DragojevićM
- 4B. GodfreyD
- 31L. KellyG
- 28B. MiovskiF
- 18K. NedeljkovićD
- 12C. FerrieG
- 3Michael-John Kamson-KamaraD
- 4C. McCarthyD
- 14G. StangerD
- 21M. Schjønning-LarsenD
- 36A. TshibolaM
- 18T. LoweryM
- 8E. RingM
- 10T. John-JulesM
- 11G. KiltieM
- 9J. HugillF
- 2J. BrandonD
- 20N. CleșcencoF
- 29D. DanielsF
- 6R. DeasD
- 7R. McKenzieM
- 19J. MeierD
- 5M. O'HaraM
- 40C. ArmourG
- 27I. OwenF
Form going into Rangers vs Kilmarnock
Rangers
- W1-0away to Celtic20 September 2026
- W1-0St Mirren9 September 2026
- W1-0Motherwell5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Falkirk2 September 2026
Kilmarnock
- D1-1Heart of Midlothian19 September 2026
- W1-0away to Hibernian15 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aberdeen5 September 2026
- L0-1St Mirren2 September 2026
What these results say
- Rangers won every one of these 4 matches.
- Rangers scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Rangers kept a clean sheet in 3 of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for Kilmarnock had two goals or fewer.
- Kilmarnock failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Rangers | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 19 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Rangers vs Kilmarnock
- 10 October 2026Rangers 3–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 4 February 2026Rangers 5–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 6 December 2025Kilmarnock 0–3 RangersPremiership
- 26 October 2025Rangers 3–1 KilmarnockPremiership
- 26 February 2025Kilmarnock 2–4 RangersPremiership
- 4 December 2024Rangers 6–0 KilmarnockPremiership
Leading scorers: Rangers and Kilmarnock
Rangers
GoalsAssists
- R. Naderi41
- L. Shankland30
Kilmarnock
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.