Falkirk vs Dundee Premiership prediction & result
Final score: Falkirk 1-2 Dundee.
Before kick-off the model made it 42% Falkirk, 26% draw, 32% Dundee — fair odds of 2.38, 3.85 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
All Scottish Premiership predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Falkirk at 42% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Falkirk vs Dundee
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 19S. BainG
- 22R. StrainD
- 15L. NeilsonD
- 5L. HendersonD
- 3L. McCannD
- 8B. SpencerM
- 16Finley Frank BarbrookM
- 23E. RossM
- 28B. KrauhausM
- 42Owen EamesM
- 24J. MurrellF
- 4J. McMillanD
- 7Ben ParkinsonF
- 9R. MacIverF
- 1N. HogarthG
- 99C. FodreyM
- 10C. SibbaldM
- 14F. YeatsM
- 21D. MeļņiksM
- 27C. McLeodM
- 1O. GoodmanG
- 7D. WrightD
- 4R. AstleyD
- 5O. BevanD
- 12I. SamuelsD
- 14A. ForrestM
- 28C. JonesM
- 48E. HamiltonM
- 27J. BevanM
- 21B. FinkF
- 11A. HayF
- 6M. AkinmboniD
- 60R. BlandM
- 2B. HallidayD
- 47Ashton LeiperD
- 13K. O'HaraG
- 3I. OdutayoD
- 26J. WrightD
- 77Alfie HarrisonM
- 55Rory HughesM
Form going into Falkirk vs Dundee
Falkirk
- D1-1away to St Johnstone19 September 2026
- W2-1Heart of Midlothian15 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dundee United5 September 2026
- L1-2Rangers2 September 2026
Dundee
- W2-1Motherwell19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Heart of Midlothian6 September 2026
- D1-1St Johnstone2 September 2026
- L1-2Hibernian30 August 2026
What these results say
- Falkirk scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Falkirk conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Falkirk.
- Dundee scored in every one of these 4 matches.
- Dundee conceded in every one of these 4 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 4 matches for Dundee.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Falkirk | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 4 | Dundee | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Falkirk vs Dundee
- 10 October 2026Falkirk 1–2 DundeePremiership
- 11 February 2026Falkirk 1–0 DundeePremiership
- 27 December 2025Dundee 1–0 FalkirkPremiership
- 25 October 2025Falkirk 2–1 DundeePremiership
- 8 December 2022Falkirk 0–3 DundeeChallenge Cup
- 30 August 2022Dundee 3–0 FalkirkLeague Cup
Leading scorers: Falkirk and Dundee
Falkirk
No player in Premiership's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Dundee
GoalsAssists
- J. Westley30
- O. Bevan20
- B. Fink20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.